SOMers - Stratomatic Baseball

Members Login
Username 
 
Password 
    Remember Me  
Post Info TOPIC: Optimizing Lineups - Revisited
«First  <  1 2 3 4 5  >  Last»  | Page of 5  sorted by


Third Base Coach

Status: Online
Posts: 6297
Date: Feb 27, 2016
RE: Optimizing Lineups - Revisited
Permalink  
 


scorpio rising 2 wrote:

I could be reading incorrectly, one team is in a descending order of OBP...not OPS? Often times the clean-up hitter whom is often the team leader in SLG and OPS would be...based on OBP end up somewhere else towards the top of the order. Probably the case for the majority of other players as well. It seems to me that using the optimized version against say...the most often used standard lineup that the 65 team actually employed would be the more telling method to use for comparison's sake.
I certainly appreciate how you made the effort to define which lineup is better than the other. I will refer to B.R. to see how that team would lineup in a descending order of OBP in order to evaluate better.


 Here are the lineups I used:

OBP Lineup

1.H.Killebre 3B 
2.T.Oliva    RF 
3.E.Battey   C  
4.J.Hall     CF 
5.D.Mincher  1B 
6.B.Allison  LF 
7.Z.Versalle SS 
8.G.Kindall  2B 
9.
TT's Lineup

1.E.Battey C 2.J.Hall CF 3.H.Killebre 3B 4.T.Oliva RF 5.D.Mincher 1B 6.Z.Versalle SS 7.G.Kindall 2B 8.B.Allison LF 9.

If the lineup were in order of OPS, it would be:

1.H.Killebre 3B 2.T.Oliva RF 3.D.Mincher 1B 4.B.Allison LF 5.J.Hall CF 6.E.Battey C 7.Z.Versalle SS 8.G.Kindall 2B 9.

SR2, I would welcome your suggested lineup based upon "The Book."



__________________

Baseball ... this field, this game ... It is part of our past.  It reminds us all of what once was good -- and could be again.



Luxury Box Season Ticket Holder

Status: Offline
Posts: 806
Date: Feb 28, 2016
Permalink  
 

The concepts outlined in "The Book are not 100% across the board, there is a gray area as with most anything conceptually speaking.
I would ask you to refer to my original post in this thread for that will summarize best... the lineup that herein follows
The 65 Twins were difficult at best to construct a lineup order that best reflects an optimized order. First, Killebrew and Mincher could be reversed, I chose what you will see because Mincher's ISO is 257 and Killebrew's is 232. Also, Killebrew's OPS is significantly better than Mincher's...henceforth, Mincher the better slugger, Killebrew the better fit for the 2-hole with his OPS.
Allison is in the 3-hole because he was the best remaining player after slots 1, 4, 2, and 5 were filled.

First column is OBP, Second column is SLG, Third column is OPS .

1. Oliva .378 .491 .870
2. Killebrew .384 .501 .885
3. Allison .342 .445 .787
4. Mincher .344 .509 .853
5. Hall .347 .464 .810
6. Battey .375 .409 .783
7. Versalles .319 .462 .781
8. Kindall .274 .289 .563


Hope that helps, I would be interested to see how that order, only that order...would compare to the most widely used order that the 65 Twins used.
Only in doing so would one truly know which concept is superior...Optimized as outlined in "The Book versus the Standard methods.






__________________

I'd wake up at night with the smell of the ball park in my nose, the cool of the grass on my feet...The Thrill of the Grass...Heck, I'd play for free!



Umpire

Status: Offline
Posts: 9230
Date: Feb 28, 2016
Permalink  
 

So I used the computer game lineup evaluator and ran a quick 5000 games of the 1965 Twins against the Swinging 60s League using the lineup:

OBP Lineup-4.53 runs/game

1.H.Killebre 3B 
2.T.Oliva    RF 
3.E.Battey   C  
4.J.Hall     CF 
5.D.Mincher  1B 
6.B.Allison  LF 
7.Z.Versalle SS 
8.G.Kindall  2B 

TT's Lineup-4.55 runs/game

1.E.Battey C 2.J.Hall CF 3.H.Killebre 3B 4.T.Oliva RF 5.D.Mincher 1B 6.Z.Versalle SS 7.G.Kindall 2B 8.B.Allison LF

SR2 Lineup-4.52 runs/game

1. Oliva 2. Killebrew 3. Allison 4. Mincher 5. Hall 6. Battey 7. Versalles 8. Kindall


__________________


VIP Season Ticket Holder

Status: Offline
Posts: 414
Date: Feb 28, 2016
Permalink  
 

This is all real interesting.

Where to begin?

Just looking at N/O's numbers for the SOM tool. In RL Min 65 scored 774 Runs for the season (4.78 R/G).
OBP = 733.9 R
TT = 737.1 R
SR2 = 732.2 R

Of course since this was run against swinging 60's pitching will be much better than the 1965 AL. Though I would like to know if there is more info on the SOM tool. How does it select pitchers that are run against lineups? Is it all just starters or relievers? Are the lineup players the only batters used (i.e. are their subs and you would need a 9 batter)? Could these be ran against the 1965 AL or does that take some time to set up?

-----

I have also started playing with the Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis Tool (which appears to be the link (or should I call it leap of faith) between Morong's analysis and Tango's The Book). I took the 1965 Min players selected and put them into the 1959-2004 model with a pitcher that was a composite of all 65MIN pitchers (.226, .251). Results follow:

1st - 4.964 R/G: Battey, Killer, Hall, TonyO, Mincher, PITCHER, Allison, Zorro, Kindall - Hmmm... PITCHER batted 6th

The best lineup with the pitcher 9th was:
4th - 4.961 R/G: Battey, Killer, Hall, TonyO, Mincher, Allison, Kindall, Zorro, Pitcher

Both of these lineups produce about 804 runs for the season when multiplied by 162.

__________________


Umpire

Status: Offline
Posts: 9230
Date: Feb 28, 2016
Permalink  
 

It can be used anywhere from a single pitcher up the entire league based on the rotation as set in the computer manager. It is the lineup and the starter-no subs.



__________________


Luxury Box Season Ticket Holder

Status: Offline
Posts: 806
Date: Feb 28, 2016
Permalink  
 

On the run this morning, when I return I will devote more time in reading the above posts...being a hardcore C&D guy I have no clue as to how the computer format operates but it seems interesting to say the least. I am not quite ready to accept defeat ( for lack of a better term) until the optimized lineup I created is matched up against one of the most often used lineups the 65 team actually used throughout that season. Honestly, that would be the "acid" test in my own personal opinion.
Am appreciative of the interest in this topic of discussion!
N.O., is it possible to plug in the lineups just mentioned in this singular post?
Grey Eagle...did you use the moniker Eagle 9 at .net some years back? If so, you and I used to talk quite frequently there.

__________________

I'd wake up at night with the smell of the ball park in my nose, the cool of the grass on my feet...The Thrill of the Grass...Heck, I'd play for free!



Third Base Coach

Status: Online
Posts: 6297
Date: Feb 28, 2016
Permalink  
 

Great stuff.  Thanks N/O for running the lineup evaluation.  I am going to digest this before responding.  I also hope to use Scorps lineups in a few test seasons.



__________________

Baseball ... this field, this game ... It is part of our past.  It reminds us all of what once was good -- and could be again.



Luxury Box Season Ticket Holder

Status: Offline
Posts: 806
Date: Feb 28, 2016
Permalink  
 

Everything I've read thus far by various sabermetric minds and the as played results in this thread are somehow not matching. I believe I know why, or, think so.
Obviously, being the C&D guy I am I can't reel off games by the hundreds as the computer version members can. I am torn actually, I love the hands on format of C&D, the anticipation of the roll of the dice and what they will lend to...batter's or pitcher's card, the split chance rolls are especially fun, referencing the charts and so much more. However, I think there is an attraction to the graphics of the computer version. I have never seen SOM's computer format but have seen the Dynasty League computer game and was very intrigued.
Anyway, I've been thinking of how Tom Tango came to his conclusions compared to the results N.O., T.T and Grey Eagle have come up with.
Time for my own experimentation, rather than match up the 65 optimized lineup against the 65 standard lineup...which incidentally has yet to be done...I am going to play either the 66 Orioles or the 68 Tigers against the 65 Twins. Standard order vs. standard order followed by optimized order vs. optimized order, then I will compare the run differentials between the two methods.
It just seems more realistic that way than to play a team against the same team consisting of the same players although doing so would be the ultimate comparison.
Rather than use standard OBP, SLG and OPS I will use ballpark and league adjusted versions to compensate for the difference in years and ballparks played in.
Maybe a 5-games series standard and 5-game series optimized.
As I am rolling the bones this will take me a small amount of time as I am in the midst of other tasks.
Stay tuned and I will post when complete.
Regardless of my results and other's ideas and their results...this is an interesting topic

__________________

I'd wake up at night with the smell of the ball park in my nose, the cool of the grass on my feet...The Thrill of the Grass...Heck, I'd play for free!



Umpire

Status: Offline
Posts: 9230
Date: Feb 28, 2016
Permalink  
 

Never forget good old fashion lefty righty matchups. So far we have not addressed it with data. My numbers ran the same lineup regardless of the pitcher.

Matchups have always weighed heavily in my lineup construction.



__________________


VIP Season Ticket Holder

Status: Offline
Posts: 414
Date: Mar 1, 2016
Permalink  
 

Nitrous Oxide wrote:

Never forget good old fashion lefty righty matchups. So far we have not addressed it with data. My numbers ran the same lineup regardless of the pitcher.

Matchups have always weighed heavily in my lineup construction.


 The lineup evaluation (LE) must be done in SADV or at least ADV(i.e. Comp game don't do Basic), right?

 Therefore L/R matchups could change some things (i.e. In 1965, Oliva, Mincher and Hall (all LHB) were not so good vs. LHP). Depending on the LE's LHP% it could drastically change some of those basic stats. I know that you brought the matchup issue up. And I do believe that it is a big consideration with lineup optimizing (unless you just use Basic). It would seem that if the same 8 Twins (no platoons) are used that there should be different lineups vs. LHP/RHP in order to try to follow "The Book's" best hitter placement recommendations. Or at the very least Battey should be placed in a higher spot the order, where his BAL and consistently high OBP are better used. In looking at the splits, MIN 65 seems like a tough team to optimize by "The Book" with a fixed order based upon quite a few "unBALanced" splits.

The reason I bring this up is that (besides N/O pointing it out) if I was making the lineups, I would shift around the hitters based upon the handedness of the starter (or even platoon - Mincher vs. LHP .216/.306/.297 and Oliva was not much better). Since we are assuming that we know the stats "ahead of time" in order to do this lineup construction, I would also then consider splits.

For any of "The Book" readers, did "The Book" make any mention of batting order re-slotting?

I think I need to get my hands on "The Book". 

P.S. The LE must also use relievers, correct? Sounds like you just setup computer managers for all opponents and let it go.



__________________


Umpire

Status: Offline
Posts: 9230
Date: Mar 1, 2016
Permalink  
 

LE will not use relievers. It's a math function against the base card. It is not the same as as autoplay. You can run it against a specific pitcher if you want. There is no basic in the computer version.

__________________


VIP Season Ticket Holder

Status: Offline
Posts: 414
Date: Mar 1, 2016
Permalink  
 

Nitrous Oxide wrote:

LE will not use relievers. It's a math function against the base card. It is not the same as as autoplay. You can run it against a specific pitcher if you want. There is no basic in the computer version.


 So if it is a math function, I assume that they would not want (or possibly be able - since as say it is not a true autoplay) to allow POW hits to come into play? They probably shouldn't in my opinion.

 Update - from your description and I believe an LE helpfile? that I found, I think I understand what the Evaluator does. If it is indeed true that according to the helpfile that the LE will do entire leagues as vs. LHS OR vs. RHS, then a true autoplay will not be used. They probably optimized the LE to just use a combined batter/pitcher card %s and use simple random numbers. Not worrying about pitching changes, POW, pinch hitters or relief pitchers - just run a simple no replacements game that would have only 18 total (9 per team) "combined cards" for the entire game. This will greatly reduce the programming complexity and give a quick and dirty analysis by playing simple "simulated" games.

 If the LE for the league did vs. LHS and vs. RHS separately (the helpfile seemed to indicate that, but I don't know if that info was correct?), I would be curious to see how the Twins fared vs. each particular starter handedness, if you still have any of that info.



-- Edited by Grey Eagle on Wednesday 2nd of March 2016 12:06:26 AM

__________________


Third Base Coach

Status: Online
Posts: 6297
Date: Mar 2, 2016
Permalink  
 

Nitrous Oxide wrote:

LE will not use relievers. It's a math function against the base card. It is not the same as as autoplay. You can run it against a specific pitcher if you want. There is no basic in the computer version.


For clarity, the 42 Oldtimer Roster -- which is no longer available for the computer game confuse -- rates every player as even and the right and left hand cards are identical and match the basic cards. 

 



__________________

Baseball ... this field, this game ... It is part of our past.  It reminds us all of what once was good -- and could be again.



Luxury Box Season Ticket Holder

Status: Offline
Posts: 806
Date: Mar 2, 2016
Permalink  
 

Playing the 65 Twins vs. the 66 Orioles, C&D format, Basic cards, Basic rules, no substitutions, no platooning, no relief...just wanted to keep it simple. I don't have the 65 or 66 season set, hence, the reason for Basic. Games 1 - 4 rotation was Grant, Kaat, Perry, Pascual vs. McNally, Palmer, Barber, Bunker...Games 5 - 7 were Grant, Kaat, Perry vs. McNally, Palmer, Barber.
I used the actual Standard batting order's as follows:
1. Versalles
2. Oliva
3. Hall
4. Killebrew
5. Mincher
6. Allison
7. Battey
8. Kindall

1. Aparicio
2. Blefary
3. F. Robinson
4. B. Robinson
5. Powell
6. Johnson
7. Blair
8. Etchebarren


Game 1 Bal. 5 Min. 4, Game 2 Bal. 6 Min. 4 Game 3 Min. 9 Bal. 1 Game 4 Bal. 4 Min. 3 Game 5 Min. 5 Bal. 4 Game 6 Bal. 3 Min. 1 Game 7 Min. 8 Bal. 0

N.O.'s 5000 game test using an OBP based lineup, Tom Tango's optimized lineup and my suggested optimized lineup produced a median 4.53 runs per game with a difference of .03 runs per game between the highest production and the lowest.

The 7 game C&D series I played as noted above produced a median of...65 Min. 4.86 runs per game and 66 Bal. 3.29 runs per game
The difference between N.O.'s median 4.53 and the median 4.86 I ended up with is a mere .33 runs per game. Note however that my median was a result of using Standard actual lineups used by each team.
I will now play the same teams with the same rotations using the Optimized lineups, then compare those run productions against the Standard lineups run productions.
Will post when complete.



__________________

I'd wake up at night with the smell of the ball park in my nose, the cool of the grass on my feet...The Thrill of the Grass...Heck, I'd play for free!



Umpire

Status: Offline
Posts: 9230
Date: Mar 2, 2016
Permalink  
 

Grey Eagle wrote:

 If the LE for the league did vs. LHS and vs. RHS separately (the helpfile seemed to indicate that, but I don't know if that info was correct?), I would be curious to see how the Twins fared vs. each particular starter handedness, if you still have any of that info.


Since the help file no longer works with Windows 10 (until I upgrade) the LE when used against the entire league will use every lefty starter if you have selected the vs lefties lineup or vice versa. Below is obviously against RHP

So now I ran the 65 Twins lineup I use vs right handed pitching through the 5000 game drill

Oliva
Hall
Killebrew
Mincher
Versalles
Allison
Rollins
Battey

The result-4.52 runs/game

These 4 lineups used against the same conditions were essentially a wash.



__________________
«First  <  1 2 3 4 5  >  Last»  | Page of 5  sorted by
 
Quick Reply

Please log in to post quick replies.



Create your own FREE Forum
Report Abuse
Powered by ActiveBoard