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Post Info TOPIC: Sports Illustrated 1970 Baseball Tournament
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Luxury Box Season Ticket Holder

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Date: February 2nd
RE: Sports Illustrated 1970 Baseball Tournament
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No sooner do I extol the virtues of Cuellar and Hands than the roof falls in on both of them.  Fortunately for the Cubs, more on Cuellar.  In the eighth, with Randy Hundley on second with two out, Cuellar intentionally walked Glenn Beckert to get to Johnny Callison.  Playing the percentages didn't work out, as Callison singled home Hundley.  Billy Williams then tripled home Becket and Callison and Cuellar was done for the day with the Cubs up 3-0.  In the bottom of the eighth, reliever Jim Colborn gave up a walk and two hits (much like he did yersterday).  But pinch hitter Merv Rettenmund grounded into a double play and pinch hitter Elrod Hendricks whiffed to end the threat. Two runs were in, but nothing across in the ninth meant the Cubs had evened the series at one apiece.

 123456789  R HELOB
Chicago Cubs (1-1)
000000030  3 504
Baltimore Orioles (1-1)
000000020  2 501

 

CubsPOSABRHRBIAVG OriolesPOSABRHRBIAVG
GLENN BECKERT2B3100.192 DON BUFORDLF3000.304
JOHNNY CALLISONRF2111.174 PAUL BLAIRCF4010.280
BILLY WILLIAMSLF4012.269 FRANK ROBINSONRF4010.250
JIM HICKMANCF4010.208 BOOG POWELL1B3000.400
ERNIE BANKS1B4000.348 BROOKS ROBINSON3B2100.273
RON SANTO3B4000.042 DAVE JOHNSON2B3110.304
RANDY HUNDLEYC 4110.227 ANDY ETCHEBARRENC 3011.333
DON KESSINGERSS3010.269 MARK BELANGERSS2010.313
BILL HANDSP 2000.000    MERV RETTENMUNDPH1000.333
   CLEO JAMESPH1000.500    CHICO SALMONSS0000.000
   JIM COLBORNP 0000.000 MIKE CUELLARP 1000.143
           DICK HALLP 0000.000
           ELROD HENDRICKSPH1000.000
           JIM HARDINP 0000.000



CubsIPHBBSORERERA OriolesIPHBBSORERERA
BILL HANDS W (1-0)7313002.40 MIKE CUELLAR L (1-2)7.2535333.18
JIM COLBORN SV (1)2212225.79 DICK HALL0.1000000.00
         JIM HARDIN1000000.00

 

3B:BILLY WILLIAMS (1)
RBI:JOHNNY CALLISON (5) BILLY WILLIAMS (4) ANDY ETCHEBARREN (3)


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Hindsight is 20/20............but I would have let Beckert try to beat me...........I know he is a RHB, Callison is a LHB, but you have to pitch to the worse hitter no matter the platoon advantage. You don't gain the DP possibility with 2 outs either.......and Callison my guess is more of a guy to hit a fly ball anyways then a force play grounder.....

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Luxury Box Season Ticket Holder

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Date: February 3rd
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nacster wrote:

Hindsight is 20/20............but I would have let Beckert try to beat me...........I know he is a RHB, Callison is a LHB, but you have to pitch to the worse hitter no matter the platoon advantage. You don't gain the DP possibility with 2 outs either.......and Callison my guess is more of a guy to hit a fly ball anyways then a force play grounder.....


The percentages were high in this case, but not for a true R vs L reason.  Beckert's chart made him about a .340 hitter against Cuellar.  Callison is about .270 against lefties.  I was more concerned about what happens if Callison gets a hit or a walk.  I'm setting up a scenario where Baltimore's pitchers have to face Williams and possibly Hickman.  That turned out to be the killer - Williams' follow-up triple.

Unfortunately, a weak spot in the Orioles pitching is the lack of a killer right-handed reliever.  I could have used one in that situation.  Dick Hall is very good, but not great.  If I were managing to win - as opposed to managing for both teams and trying to insert a measure of realism - I'd consider putting Palmer in the bullpen.

The Cubs hit very well against lefties, so they might give McNally some trouble in the next game.  Cuellar was fairly lucky with the rolls through seven.  But the Orioles are similarly better against lefties, and they face Holtzman.  I predict a high score for both teams in game three.



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Date: February 3rd
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boomer wrote:
nacster wrote:

Hindsight is 20/20............but I would have let Beckert try to beat me...........I know he is a RHB, Callison is a LHB, but you have to pitch to the worse hitter no matter the platoon advantage. You don't gain the DP possibility with 2 outs either.......and Callison my guess is more of a guy to hit a fly ball anyways then a force play grounder.....


The percentages were high in this case, but not for a true R vs L reason.  Beckert's chart made him about a .340 hitter against Cuellar.  Callison is about .270 against lefties.  I was more concerned about what happens if Callison gets a hit or a walk.  I'm setting up a scenario where Baltimore's pitchers have to face Williams and possibly Hickman.  That turned out to be the killer - Williams' follow-up triple.

Unfortunately, a weak spot in the Orioles pitching is the lack of a killer right-handed reliever.  I could have used one in that situation.  Dick Hall is very good, but not great.  If I were managing to win - as opposed to managing for both teams and trying to insert a measure of realism - I'd consider putting Palmer in the bullpen.

The Cubs hit very well against lefties, so they might give McNally some trouble in the next game.  Cuellar was fairly lucky with the rolls through seven.  But the Orioles are similarly better against lefties, and they face Holtzman.  I predict a high score for both teams in game three.


For what it's worth...

In real life, Glenn Beckert hit .417 against Mike Cuellar (7-18).  I know that doesn't mean squat in our little gaming universe, but I think you made the proper move.  Beckert hit .338 vs. southpaws in '70.

Oddly, though, Callison had reverse success, batting 35 points higher (.292) against portsiders than he hit against righties (.257).

Did you know...?

For a pitcher who led the league with his 24 wins and finished fourth in the Cy voting, Cueller only had a 2.0 WAR?  He didn't even make the top 10 in WAR for pitchers.  He ranked fourth among the pitchers on his own team, behind Pete Richert.  His career WAR was just 27.1.

He won 20+ games four times, notched 18 wins twice, and also had a 16-win campaign, yet he only finished in the top 10 in WAR twice in his career.  By comparison, Palmer's WAR -- based on his 20-10, 2.71, campaign -- was second in the league among pitchers: 6.4.

I decided to go to the advanced pitching stats and play around with Cuellar's Neutralized numbers.  You can adjust the parameters to reflect the specifics for any particular year and league.

When I adjusted his career totals to reflect the scoring norms of the 1970 A.L., his career W-L record dropped from 185-130, 3.14, to 168-145, 3.40.  His 24-8 1970 season falls to 17-16.

I know the norms are different for each season/league.  Houston, in that '68 run-scoring wasteland, is different.

Still, it's amazing where the numbers can take you.

Funny thing...

Cuellar's top match in the Similarity Scores is Baltimore teammate Dave McNally, who earns a 964 mark.  McNally -- who posted a mark of 184-119, 3.24 -- had a career WAR of 26.



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General Manager

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Date: February 3rd
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seajaw wrote:
boomer wrote:
nacster wrote:

Hindsight is 20/20............but I would have let Beckert try to beat me...........I know he is a RHB, Callison is a LHB, but you have to pitch to the worse hitter no matter the platoon advantage. You don't gain the DP possibility with 2 outs either.......and Callison my guess is more of a guy to hit a fly ball anyways then a force play grounder.....


The percentages were high in this case, but not for a true R vs L reason.  Beckert's chart made him about a .340 hitter against Cuellar.  Callison is about .270 against lefties.  I was more concerned about what happens if Callison gets a hit or a walk.  I'm setting up a scenario where Baltimore's pitchers have to face Williams and possibly Hickman.  That turned out to be the killer - Williams' follow-up triple.

Unfortunately, a weak spot in the Orioles pitching is the lack of a killer right-handed reliever.  I could have used one in that situation.  Dick Hall is very good, but not great.  If I were managing to win - as opposed to managing for both teams and trying to insert a measure of realism - I'd consider putting Palmer in the bullpen.

The Cubs hit very well against lefties, so they might give McNally some trouble in the next game.  Cuellar was fairly lucky with the rolls through seven.  But the Orioles are similarly better against lefties, and they face Holtzman.  I predict a high score for both teams in game three.


For what it's worth...

In real life, Glenn Beckert hit .417 against Mike Cuellar (7-18).  I know that doesn't mean squat in our little gaming universe, but I think you made the proper move.  Beckert hit .338 vs. southpaws in '70.

Oddly, though, Callison had reverse success, batting 35 points higher (.292) against portsiders than he hit against righties (.257).

Did you know...?

For a pitcher who led the league with his 24 wins and finished fourth in the Cy voting, Cueller only had a 2.0 WAR?  He didn't even make the top 10 in WAR for pitchers.  He ranked fourth among the pitchers on his own team, behind Pete Richert.  His career WAR was just 27.1.

He won 20+ games four times, notched 18 wins twice, and also had a 16-win campaign, yet he only finished in the top 10 in WAR twice in his career.  By comparison, Palmer's WAR -- based on his 20-10, 2.71, campaign -- was second in the league among pitchers: 6.4.

I decided to go to the advanced pitching stats and play around with Cuellar's Neutralized numbers.  You can adjust the parameters to reflect the specifics for any particular year and league.

When I adjusted his career totals to reflect the scoring norms of the 1970 A.L., his career W-L record dropped from 185-130, 3.14, to 168-145, 3.40.  His 24-8 1970 season falls to 17-16.

I know the norms are different for each season/league.  Houston, in that '68 run-scoring wasteland, is different.

Still, it's amazing where the numbers can take you.

Funny thing...

Cuellar's top match in the Similarity Scores is Baltimore teammate Dave McNally, who earns a 964 mark.  McNally -- who posted a mark of 184-119, 3.24 -- had a career WAR of 26.


 Even back then, wins were overrated!!!!............in 1980 Steve Stone, who famously won 25 games........in fact isn't he the last pitcher to win 25?...........his WAR was only 3.9, while Scott McGregor, who was 20-8.....had an ERA .09 WORSE then Stone......and a WHIP only .06 better.........had a WAR of 4.5 (was the top O's pitcher, 2nd on the whole team to Al Bumbry's 6.0, Stone ranked 5th on the team behind Bumbry/McGregor/Murray/Singleton, and actually tied with Doug DeCinces).



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"NACSTER'S HISTORICAL REPLAY"

33 REPLAYS IN THE BOOKS!

1876-1883

1896-1900

1906

1916-1917

1921, 1929

1936-1937

1943, 1946

1956-1963

1976

1986

1991

37,117 regular season games through 34 replays!

 

 



Luxury Box Season Ticket Holder

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Date: February 3rd
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nacster wrote:

Even back then, wins were overrated!!!!


Because there doesn't always seem to be a correlation between a pitcher's stats and his chart, one theory is that SI (at least for the 1970 season) made a pitcher's chart better (or worse) depending on how many wins or saves he had (or didn't have).  I'm not sure if this was the case for any of the pitchers for the Cubs or Orioles, but it has to be the case for Jim Merritt of the Reds.  He won 20 but had an ERA over 4.00 and gave up a lot of hits.  His chart, though not great, clearly is too good.  I confirmed this by running a test chart using his stats and the game's chart editor.



-- Edited by boomer on Friday 3rd of February 2017 03:55:12 PM

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Date: February 4th
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CUBS BLANK BIRDS 5-0, TAKE SERIES LEAD

How quickly things can change.  The Orioles looked like they might sweep the series after an impressive 7-0 opening game win.  But now it's the Cubs turn to grab the momentum.  Ken Holtzman picked up his third win and tossed his second shutout of the playoffs.  Don Kessinger, relegated to the eighth spot against the lefty Dave McNally, was two for four with three RBIs.

Next up, the Orioles try to force a fifth and deciding game with Jim Palmer on the mound against Fergie Jenkins.  Palmer was impressive in game one with a convincing shutout win.



123456789  R HELOB
Baltimore Orioles (1-2)
000000000  0 406
Chicago Cubs (2-1)
00020201x  5 1009

 

OriolesPOSABRHRBIAVG CubsPOSABRHRBIAVG
DON BUFORDLF3010.308 GLENN BECKERT2B5000.161
   DICK HALLP 0000.000 JOHNNY CALLISONRF5000.143
DAVE JOHNSON2B3010.308 BILLY WILLIAMSLF3220.310
BROOKS ROBINSON3B4010.269 JIM HICKMANCF3210.222
FRANK ROBINSONRF4000.214 ERNIE BANKS1B4110.333
MERV RETTENMUNDCF3000.200 RON SANTO3B4031.143
 LF1000.200 RANDY HUNDLEYC 2000.208
BOOG POWELL1B3000.348 DON KESSINGERSS4023.300
ANDY ETCHEBARRENC 3000.278 KEN HOLTZMANP 3010.143
MARK BELANGERSS2000.278
   CHICO SALMONPH1000.000
 SS0000.000
DAVE McNALLYP 2000.200
   PAUL BLAIRPH1010.308
 CF0000.308

 

OriolesIPHBBSORERERA CubsIPHBBSORERERA
DAVE McNALLY
   L (0-1)
7723444.76 KEN HOLTZMAN
   W (3-0)
9438002.28
DICK HALL1301113.86

 

2B:PAUL BLAIR (2) RON SANTO (1)
RBI:RON SANTO (3) DON KESSINGER (3)
SB:DON BUFORD (6)


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Date: February 7th
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CUBS EDGE ORIOLES 3-2, TAKE SERIES IN FOUR GAMES!

Jim Hickman's two-run double in the seventh tied the game, and Ernie Banks' solo shot in the eighth capped off a come-from-behind win by the Cubs.  The Cubs lost game one, but won the next three straight to take the series. The Orioles had a chance to tie the game in the eighth after Paul Blair reached second on a two-base error by Glenn Beckert and Frank Robinson stroked a single to left.  But Billy Williams gunned down Blair at the plate for the second out.  Boog Powell then popped out to end the inning.  Milt Pappas retired the Orioles in order in the ninth to seal the series win.

Thanks to everyone who followed along.  It's been quite a trip down memory lane.

 123456789  R HELOB
Chicago Cubs (3-1)
000000210  3 8310
Baltimore Orioles (1-3)
000110000  2 704

 

CubsPOSABRHRBIAVG OriolesPOSABRHRBIAVG
DON KESSINGERSS5010.286 DON BUFORDLF4000.267
GLENN BECKERT2B3110.176 PAUL BLAIRCF4011.300
BILLY WILLIAMSLF5110.294 FRANK ROBINSONRF4120.250
JIM HICKMANCF5022.250 BOOG POWELL1B4010.333
RON SANTO3B4000.125 BROOKS ROBINSON3B4011.267
JOHNNY CALLISONRF4000.125 DAVE JOHNSON2B4010.300
ERNIE BANKS1B4121.355 ANDY ETCHEBARRENC 3000.238
RANDY HUNDLEYC 3010.222    MERV RETTENMUNDPH1000.182
FERGUSON JENKINSP 1000.000 MARK BELANGERSS3110.286
   PAUL POPOVICHPH1000.000 JIM PALMERP 2000.143
   JIM COLBORNP 0000.000
   MILT PAPPASP 0000.000

 

CubsIPHBBSORERERA OriolesIPHBBSORERERA
FERGUSON JENKINS6605222.03 JIM PALMER L (1-1)9858331.42
JIM COLBORN W (2-0)2101004.05
MILT PAPPAS SV (1)10000015.43

 

2B:JIM HICKMAN (3)
3B:BROOKS ROBINSON (2)
HR:ERNIE BANKS (2)
RBI:JIM HICKMAN (7) ERNIE BANKS (4) PAUL BLAIR (2) BROOKS ROBINSON (7)


-- Edited by boomer on Tuesday 7th of February 2017 08:59:25 PM

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Poor 1970 Orioles................still can't be crowned champs!

__________________

"NACSTER'S HISTORICAL REPLAY"

33 REPLAYS IN THE BOOKS!

1876-1883

1896-1900

1906

1916-1917

1921, 1929

1936-1937

1943, 1946

1956-1963

1976

1986

1991

37,117 regular season games through 34 replays!

 

 



Luxury Box Season Ticket Holder

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Date: February 7th
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Congrats on finishing the project. I enjoyed following along.

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Umpire

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Date: February 7th
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Congratulations. It always a good feeling to complete a project.

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VP of Operations

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Date: February 8th
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nacster wrote:

Poor 1970 Orioles................still can't be crowned champs!


Don't forget.  The Orioles did win the '70 World Series IRL.  Brooksie was the MVP.

The only one of three straight they were in that they did win.

It's nice to see those Cubs actually win one.



__________________

"No cell, no car, no credit cards, he's sixty-plus and gray...
Just sitting in his basement, with a Strat game underway."



General Manager

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Date: February 8th
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seajaw wrote:
nacster wrote:

Poor 1970 Orioles................still can't be crowned champs!


Don't forget.  The Orioles did win the '70 World Series IRL.  Brooksie was the MVP.

The only one of three straight they were in that they did win.

It's nice to see those Cubs actually win one.


 I meant on SOMers......



__________________

"NACSTER'S HISTORICAL REPLAY"

33 REPLAYS IN THE BOOKS!

1876-1883

1896-1900

1906

1916-1917

1921, 1929

1936-1937

1943, 1946

1956-1963

1976

1986

1991

37,117 regular season games through 34 replays!

 

 



VP of Operations

Status: Offline
Posts: 16142
Date: February 8th
Permalink  
 

nacster wrote:
seajaw wrote:
nacster wrote:

Poor 1970 Orioles................still can't be crowned champs!


Don't forget.  The Orioles did win the '70 World Series IRL.  Brooksie was the MVP.

The only one of three straight they were in that they did win.

It's nice to see those Cubs actually win one.


 I meant on SOMers......


Okay. wink



__________________

"No cell, no car, no credit cards, he's sixty-plus and gray...
Just sitting in his basement, with a Strat game underway."



General Manager

Status: Offline
Posts: 13467
Date: February 8th
Permalink  
 

seajaw wrote:
nacster wrote:
seajaw wrote:
nacster wrote:

Poor 1970 Orioles................still can't be crowned champs!


Don't forget.  The Orioles did win the '70 World Series IRL.  Brooksie was the MVP.

The only one of three straight they were in that they did win.

It's nice to see those Cubs actually win one.


 I meant on SOMers......


Okay. wink


 In all seriousness though, can you name another all-time team that has been played in projects here that has been less successful?.......



__________________

"NACSTER'S HISTORICAL REPLAY"

33 REPLAYS IN THE BOOKS!

1876-1883

1896-1900

1906

1916-1917

1921, 1929

1936-1937

1943, 1946

1956-1963

1976

1986

1991

37,117 regular season games through 34 replays!

 

 

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