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Hall of Fame some day?
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Hall of Fame some day?

Adrian Beltre
Robinson Cano
Carlos Beltran
Mark Texiera
Jim Thome
Joe Mauer
Chase Utley
David Wright
Yadier Molina
Adrian Gonzalez (I was stunned to see he is not among the top 20 active oWAR leaders.)
Troy Tulowitski (His career road BA is 41 points lower than his home -- Colorado and Toronto, two notorious hitters' parks -- BA, which might negatively influence voters.)
C.C. Sabathia
Bartolo Colon
Cole Hamels
Jon Lester
Felix Hernandez
Adam Wainwright

And three who are no longer active, but shone brightly in their careers:

Maggio Ordonez (He only had 10 seasons of 100+ games)
Johan Santana (Two Cys, two third place finishes)
Cliff Lee (One Cy, one third place finish, one fourth place finish, and a career average of 15 wins/season)

Some players need no mention here, such as Albert Pujols, David Ortiz, Miguel Cabrera, or Ichiro, because we would concede they will get in (right?).

Some of the players listed may seem more obvious than others, for one reason or another.  Some may be sneaking by, largely unconsidered, for some reason on another.  Each (with exceptions as noted) is among the current active leaders in either offensive, pitching, or defensive WAR.

Got thoughts?  Go for it. wink



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Here is my two cents.......rating them on likeliness as of right now, plus guesstimated projections allowing for age, position, body type, contract, and anything else I can think of........I put them in different categories...........

SURE FIRE LOCKS (probably on the 1st ballot)........
Pujols, Ortiz, Cabrera, Ichiro.......for the main obvious reasons........

AS CLOSE TO A SURE FIRE LOCK AS YOU CAN GET (potentially on the 1st ballot, but shouldn't have to wait more then a year or two)........
Beltre (when all is said and done, only Schmidt and possibly Mathews would rank higher at his position)
Thome (besides 600 homers, a writers delight and a seemingly clean player, only negative is lack of MVP consideration during his career)

PROBABLE HOF'ers (bit may need another stellar season or two to sway the voters)........
Cano (my guess is he will finish his career ranked in the Top5 all-time at his position, but is a position switch inevitable in 2 or 3 years?)

STILL TRACKING IN THE RIGHT WAY (cannot afford a down year or an injury which would rob him of a year plus)........
Felix (hopefully the writers remember his peripheral stats and not downgrade his lack of signature season or amount of wins)

THINK OF THE POSSIBILITIES........
Trout (not even anyone close to best player in the game)
Kershaw (not even anyone close to best pitcher in the game)
Enough said

GREAT CAREER THAT WILL FALL SHORT OF 10-YEAR ASSESSMENT......
Beltran (high counting numbers, but a few other guys like Jim Edmonds are quite similar)
Teixeira (same as Beltran at a less-premium defensive position, although one of the best with the glove of this era)
Utley (if he has only stayed healthy the past 3 or 4 years, we could be talking about someone Cano would have to replace to be considered Top5 all-time)
Votto (does everything very very good, but best quality of OBP will get glossed over, will have much better career numbers then Teixeira at the end)

WOULD NEED SOME SIGNATURE SEASON OR TWO.....
Lester
Wainwright
(very interchangeable, one lefty one righty, both amazing pitchers but I think they would need a Jake Arrieta/2015 type of season to get consideration)
Gonzalez (too many other 1B during his career were better)

INJURIES COST THEM.........
Mauer (think Bill Madlock or Tony Oliva, great hitters that for whatever reason flamed out too soon, Mauer's time at 1B with no power kills him)
Wright (besides his back, the move to Citi cost him some numbers)
Tulo (when on the field is one of the 5 best hitters but simply is made of glass)

THE "BILL MAZEROSKI EFFECT".....
Yadi (replaces Pudge Rodriguez as best defensive C in the game, too many years of simply adequate offense, just short of 1600 games caught so his decline is going to be hard and fast)

WILL NOT GET 5% ON FIRST BALLOT........
Colon
C.C.
Hamels

(very good careers, but far too many others like them. Colon = Dennis Martinez, C.C. = David Wells, Hamels = ......Cliff Lee)

Ordonez (nice hair though)



-- Edited by nacster on Saturday 1st of October 2016 03:07:04 PM



-- Edited by nacster on Saturday 1st of October 2016 03:07:33 PM

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One comment..........by signature season..............think of something like Steve Stone winning 25 games in 1980, Brady Anderson hitting a million homers, or Orel Hershiser becoming unconscious.........

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Very few players can get into the HOF having a career like Eddie Murray............all the counting numbers due to each year being exactly like the one before it, and the one after it.

Think of it...........Murray for his first 9 years had these finishes in MVP voting......

ROY but no MVP votes
8th
11th
6th
5th
2nd
2nd
4th
5th

That was through his age 29 season. Only one year after that did he get any MVP votes (5th in his age 34 season).

Only 2 years after his age 29 season did he make an ASG (his age 30 and age 35 season)

His nickname fits his career probably as good as anyone to ever play the game........."Steady Eddie"...........

__________________

"NACSTER'S HISTORICAL REPLAY"

34 REPLAYS IN THE BOOKS!

1876-1883

1896-1900

1906

1916-1917

1921, 1929

1936-1937

1943, 1946

1956-1963

1976

1986

1991, 1996

37,117 regular season games through 34 replays!

 

 



VP of Operations

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Date: Oct 1, 2016
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Obviously, I left a few no-doubters off the list, because they are no-doubters.  I wanted to look at some players who are not necessarily in that category, where there are pros and cons to be discussed.

I think of Molina, for instance, more highly, because his offensive production has been markedly better (.298/.348/.415/.780) in his last nine seasons (counting this year, to date), while winning a Gold Glove in each of the last eight seasons.

He is on pace for his fourth .300 season in the last six years.  His career batting average has risen from .268 to .284 in that span.

He is third among all active players in Total Zone Fielding Runs Above Average, and the only catcher in the top 20.  He leads all active catchers in career caught stealing percentage.

Plus, he has third- and fourth-place MVP finishes.



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VP of Operations

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nacster wrote:

Very few players can get into the HOF having a career like Eddie Murray............all the counting numbers due to each year being exactly like the one before it, and the one after it.

Think of it...........Murray for his first 9 years had these finishes in MVP voting......

ROY but no MVP votes
8th
11th
6th
5th
2nd
2nd
4th
5th

That was through his age 29 season. Only one year after that did he get any MVP votes (5th in his age 34 season).

Only 2 years after his age 29 season did he make an ASG (his age 30 and age 35 season)

His nickname fits his career probably as good as anyone to ever play the game........."Steady Eddie"...........


There is something to being sure and steady.

As we know, excellence comes in different forms.



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I think Sabathia would be more likely than Colon, but I think C.C. has to get serious consideration.

Remember, he has a Cy, four other top-five finishes, and six seasons of 17+ wins.  He is 58th all-time in WAR for pitchers, first among active hurlers.

Obviously, the standards for pitchers have changed dramatically in the modern era.  But those standards have changed for every pitcher in the era.  While his career win total, for instance, is just 71st all-time, he is second among all active pitchers.






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General Manager

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seajaw wrote:

Obviously, I left a few no-doubters off the list, because they are no-doubters.  I wanted to look at some players who are not necessarily in that category, where there are pros and cons to be discussed.

I think of Molina, for instance, more highly, because his offensive production has been markedly better (.298/.348/.415/.780) in his last nine seasons (counting this year, to date), while winning a Gold Glove in each of the last eight seasons.

He is on pace for his fourth .300 season in the last six years.  His career batting average has risen from .268 to .284 in that span.

He is third among all active players in Total Zone Fielding Runs Above Average, and the only catcher in the top 20.  He leads all active catchers in career caught stealing percentage.

Plus, he has third- and fourth-place MVP finishes.


 Molina's career OPS+ is 98........that's a negative when considering HOF'ers..........he had three amazing years (124, 137, 129)........he has almost as much dWAR then oWAR (20.9 dWAR to 21.2 oWAR).......I just don't see him adding a lot of offensive numbers given his large amount of games caught.........

Molina = Ozzie Smith, and as great as Molina is with the glove, is he transcendent as Ozzie was?  Ozzie's OPS+ was 87, his dWAR was 43.4, but his oWAR was surprisingly 47.8......



-- Edited by nacster on Saturday 1st of October 2016 04:21:41 PM

__________________

"NACSTER'S HISTORICAL REPLAY"

34 REPLAYS IN THE BOOKS!

1876-1883

1896-1900

1906

1916-1917

1921, 1929

1936-1937

1943, 1946

1956-1963

1976

1986

1991, 1996

37,117 regular season games through 34 replays!

 

 



General Manager

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Posts: 13508
Date: Oct 1, 2016
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seajaw wrote:

I think Sabathia would be more likely than Colon, but I think C.C. has to get serious consideration.

Remember, he has a Cy, four other top-five finishes, and six seasons of 17+ wins.  He is 58th all-time in WAR for pitchers, first among active hurlers.

Obviously, the standards for pitchers have changed dramatically in the modern era.  But those standards have changed for every pitcher in the era.  While his career win total, for instance, is just 71st all-time, he is second among all active pitchers.





 While I agree C.C. had a very very good peak.........the rest of his career has been, to be honest, kind of brutal.  He peaked early, and due to his girthyness, aged fast.  Think Mo Vaughn of pitchers........last 4 years 32-39, 4.54, 1.377 WHIP......and I don't see a Roger Clemens resurrection any time soon..........his direct comp is Tim Hudson, and that seems completely correct.......



__________________

"NACSTER'S HISTORICAL REPLAY"

34 REPLAYS IN THE BOOKS!

1876-1883

1896-1900

1906

1916-1917

1921, 1929

1936-1937

1943, 1946

1956-1963

1976

1986

1991, 1996

37,117 regular season games through 34 replays!

 

 



General Manager

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Posts: 13508
Date: Oct 1, 2016
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nacster wrote:
seajaw wrote:

I think Sabathia would be more likely than Colon, but I think C.C. has to get serious consideration.

Remember, he has a Cy, four other top-five finishes, and six seasons of 17+ wins.  He is 58th all-time in WAR for pitchers, first among active hurlers.

Obviously, the standards for pitchers have changed dramatically in the modern era.  But those standards have changed for every pitcher in the era.  While his career win total, for instance, is just 71st all-time, he is second among all active pitchers.





 While I agree C.C. had a very very good peak.........the rest of his career has been, to be honest, kind of brutal.  He peaked early, and due to his girthyness, aged fast.  Think Mo Vaughn of pitchers........last 4 years 32-39, 4.54, 1.377 WHIP......and I don't see a Roger Clemens resurrection any time soon..........his direct comp is Tim Hudson, and that seems completely correct.......


 Colon has had an amazing career.......a lot like Charlie Hough in the sense that he got better as he got older........but he will end his career with an ERA north of 4.00 (it is at 3.94 now).  Will not get 5%........



__________________

"NACSTER'S HISTORICAL REPLAY"

34 REPLAYS IN THE BOOKS!

1876-1883

1896-1900

1906

1916-1917

1921, 1929

1936-1937

1943, 1946

1956-1963

1976

1986

1991, 1996

37,117 regular season games through 34 replays!

 

 



VP of Operations

Status: Offline
Posts: 16185
Date: Oct 1, 2016
Permalink  
 

nacster wrote:
seajaw wrote:

Obviously, I left a few no-doubters off the list, because they are no-doubters.  I wanted to look at some players who are not necessarily in that category, where there are pros and cons to be discussed.

I think of Molina, for instance, more highly, because his offensive production has been markedly better (.298/.348/.415/.780) in his last nine seasons (counting this year, to date), while winning a Gold Glove in each of the last eight seasons.

He is on pace for his fourth .300 season in the last six years.  His career batting average has risen from .268 to .284 in that span.

He is third among all active players in Total Zone Fielding Runs Above Average, and the only catcher in the top 20.  He leads all active catchers in career caught stealing percentage.

Plus, he has third- and fourth-place MVP finishes.


 Molina's career OPS+ is 98........that's a negative when considering HOF'ers..........he had three amazing years (124, 137, 129)........he has almost as much dWAR then oWAR (20.9 dWAR to 21.2 oWAR).......I just don't see him adding a lot of offensive numbers given his large amount of games caught.........


I would agree that a 98 career OPS+ isn't much.  But, as I pointed out, his numbers over the last nine years are significantly better than his first four seasons.

Pudge Rodriguez had a 97 OPS+ over his first five seasons, and finished with a 107, right about where Molina has been his last nine years.

Pudge also played half of his career in a park where the ball flies like nowhere else.



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Just sitting in his basement, with a Strat game underway."



General Manager

Status: Online
Posts: 13508
Date: Oct 1, 2016
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seajaw wrote:
nacster wrote:
seajaw wrote:

Obviously, I left a few no-doubters off the list, because they are no-doubters.  I wanted to look at some players who are not necessarily in that category, where there are pros and cons to be discussed.

I think of Molina, for instance, more highly, because his offensive production has been markedly better (.298/.348/.415/.780) in his last nine seasons (counting this year, to date), while winning a Gold Glove in each of the last eight seasons.

He is on pace for his fourth .300 season in the last six years.  His career batting average has risen from .268 to .284 in that span.

He is third among all active players in Total Zone Fielding Runs Above Average, and the only catcher in the top 20.  He leads all active catchers in career caught stealing percentage.

Plus, he has third- and fourth-place MVP finishes.


 Molina's career OPS+ is 98........that's a negative when considering HOF'ers..........he had three amazing years (124, 137, 129)........he has almost as much dWAR then oWAR (20.9 dWAR to 21.2 oWAR).......I just don't see him adding a lot of offensive numbers given his large amount of games caught.........


I would agree that a 98 career OPS+ isn't much.  But, as I pointed out, his numbers over the last nine years are significantly better than his first four seasons.

Pudge Rodriguez had a 97 OPS+ over his first five seasons, and finished with a 107, right about where Molina has been his last nine years.

Pudge also played half of his career in a park where the ball flies like nowhere else.


 Pudge also was a teammate of Jose Canseco.........biggrin



__________________

"NACSTER'S HISTORICAL REPLAY"

34 REPLAYS IN THE BOOKS!

1876-1883

1896-1900

1906

1916-1917

1921, 1929

1936-1937

1943, 1946

1956-1963

1976

1986

1991, 1996

37,117 regular season games through 34 replays!

 

 



General Manager

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Posts: 13508
Date: Oct 1, 2016
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Like I said about Molina.........his defense is so amazing he could get in on mostly that. I am not sure he gets in during the 10-year voting though. I would give him an overall 35% chance, if he adds some decent counting stats without falling off the cliff. To get in via the voting, about 5-10% chance.

__________________

"NACSTER'S HISTORICAL REPLAY"

34 REPLAYS IN THE BOOKS!

1876-1883

1896-1900

1906

1916-1917

1921, 1929

1936-1937

1943, 1946

1956-1963

1976

1986

1991, 1996

37,117 regular season games through 34 replays!

 

 



VP of Operations

Status: Offline
Posts: 16185
Date: Oct 1, 2016
Permalink  
 

nacster wrote:
nacster wrote:
seajaw wrote:

I think Sabathia would be more likely than Colon, but I think C.C. has to get serious consideration.

Remember, he has a Cy, four other top-five finishes, and six seasons of 17+ wins.  He is 58th all-time in WAR for pitchers, first among active hurlers.

Obviously, the standards for pitchers have changed dramatically in the modern era.  But those standards have changed for every pitcher in the era.  While his career win total, for instance, is just 71st all-time, he is second among all active pitchers.





 While I agree C.C. had a very very good peak.........the rest of his career has been, to be honest, kind of brutal.  He peaked early, and due to his girthyness, aged fast.  Think Mo Vaughn of pitchers........last 4 years 32-39, 4.54, 1.377 WHIP......and I don't see a Roger Clemens resurrection any time soon..........his direct comp is Tim Hudson, and that seems completely correct.......


 Colon has had an amazing career.......a lot like Charlie Hough in the sense that he got better as he got older........but he will end his career with an ERA north of 4.00 (it is at 3.94 now).  Will not get 5%........


That's the thing about how we interpret numbers.

Batting average used to be everything.  Then, we looked at on base average, and slugging percentage.  Neither independently seemed good enough, so they came up with the combined OPS.

Now, a lot of people think even OPS (or OPS+) isn't enough, so we have WAR.  We have oWAR, dWAR, pWAR.

Wins don't tell the story, so we look at ERA.  ERA doesn't tells us enough...and on and on.

My point is, if you are 58th all-time in the current hot "career-defining" stat, that -- in and of itself -- should earn you serious consideration.  Certainly more than 5% in the vote.

Colon's career is a fascinating study, it that he was won 18, 15, 14 and (so far) 14 games his last four years...at age 40-43.



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Just sitting in his basement, with a Strat game underway."



VP of Operations

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Posts: 16185
Date: Oct 1, 2016
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nacster wrote:
seajaw wrote:
nacster wrote:
seajaw wrote:

Obviously, I left a few no-doubters off the list, because they are no-doubters.  I wanted to look at some players who are not necessarily in that category, where there are pros and cons to be discussed.

I think of Molina, for instance, more highly, because his offensive production has been markedly better (.298/.348/.415/.780) in his last nine seasons (counting this year, to date), while winning a Gold Glove in each of the last eight seasons.

He is on pace for his fourth .300 season in the last six years.  His career batting average has risen from .268 to .284 in that span.

He is third among all active players in Total Zone Fielding Runs Above Average, and the only catcher in the top 20.  He leads all active catchers in career caught stealing percentage.

Plus, he has third- and fourth-place MVP finishes.


 Molina's career OPS+ is 98........that's a negative when considering HOF'ers..........he had three amazing years (124, 137, 129)........he has almost as much dWAR then oWAR (20.9 dWAR to 21.2 oWAR).......I just don't see him adding a lot of offensive numbers given his large amount of games caught.........


I would agree that a 98 career OPS+ isn't much.  But, as I pointed out, his numbers over the last nine years are significantly better than his first four seasons.

Pudge Rodriguez had a 97 OPS+ over his first five seasons, and finished with a 107, right about where Molina has been his last nine years.

Pudge also played half of his career in a park where the ball flies like nowhere else.


 Pudge also was a teammate of Jose Canseco.........biggrin



(sung to the tune of Mary Had a Little Lamb)

"And everywhere that Jose went, the 'roids were sure to go...



__________________

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Just sitting in his basement, with a Strat game underway."

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