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Post Info TOPIC: Hall of Fame some day?
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VP of Operations

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Posts: 16147
Date: Oct 1, 2016
RE: Hall of Fame some day?
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Could this year be Jon Lester's career-defining year?

Consider the way he bounced back from lymphoma, and what that cost him in performance on the field.  Even dealing with that, he has averaged 15 wins/season with a 3.33 ERA over his last nine years.

Wainwright's story hopefully has a bunch more chapters.  He was definitely on a fast track for the Hall (2009-'14), before he got hurt.



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General Manager

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Date: Oct 1, 2016
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seajaw wrote:

Could this year be Jon Lester's career-defining year?

Consider the way he bounced back from lymphoma, and what that cost him in performance on the field.  Even dealing with that, he has averaged 15 wins/season with a 3.33 ERA over his last nine years.

Wainwright's story hopefully has a bunch more chapters.  He was definitely on a fast track for the Hall (2009-'14), before he got hurt.


 Could very well be..........not sure if he starts on the weekend, but sitting at 19-4, 2.28 isn't too shabby.

 



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General Manager

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Date: Oct 1, 2016
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seajaw wrote:
nacster wrote:
nacster wrote:
seajaw wrote:

I think Sabathia would be more likely than Colon, but I think C.C. has to get serious consideration.

Remember, he has a Cy, four other top-five finishes, and six seasons of 17+ wins.  He is 58th all-time in WAR for pitchers, first among active hurlers.

Obviously, the standards for pitchers have changed dramatically in the modern era.  But those standards have changed for every pitcher in the era.  While his career win total, for instance, is just 71st all-time, he is second among all active pitchers.





 While I agree C.C. had a very very good peak.........the rest of his career has been, to be honest, kind of brutal.  He peaked early, and due to his girthyness, aged fast.  Think Mo Vaughn of pitchers........last 4 years 32-39, 4.54, 1.377 WHIP......and I don't see a Roger Clemens resurrection any time soon..........his direct comp is Tim Hudson, and that seems completely correct.......


 Colon has had an amazing career.......a lot like Charlie Hough in the sense that he got better as he got older........but he will end his career with an ERA north of 4.00 (it is at 3.94 now).  Will not get 5%........


That's the thing about how we interpret numbers.

Batting average used to be everything.  Then, we looked at on base average, and slugging percentage.  Neither independently seemed good enough, so they came up with the combined OPS.

Now, a lot of people think even OPS (or OPS+) isn't enough, so we have WAR.  We have oWAR, dWAR, pWAR.

Wins don't tell the story, so we look at ERA.  ERA doesn't tells us enough...and on and on.

My point is, if you are 58th all-time in the current hot "career-defining" stat, that -- in and of itself -- should earn you serious consideration.  Certainly more than 5% in the vote.

Colon's career is a fascinating study, it that he was won 18, 15, 14 and (so far) 14 games his last four years...at age 40-43.


 I don't disagree with the comment I highlighted.  My view is that there are already a large handful of pitchers that have the same kind of career that aren't even close to HOF worthy.

Think of it this way........Jack Morris had a career that, IMO was miles better then Colon.  Jim Kaat.  Tommy John, and I am not even counting the surgery named after him.  Those are just 3 guys who easily qualify as "bottom of the barrel" HOF'ers.  If you include Colon, you HAVE to include Jamie Moyer.  Hell Rick Reuschel's career was better then Colon's, and he's not even near HOF worthy.



__________________

"NACSTER'S HISTORICAL REPLAY"

33 REPLAYS IN THE BOOKS!

1876-1883

1896-1900

1906

1916-1917

1921, 1929

1936-1937

1943, 1946

1956-1963

1976

1986

1991

37,117 regular season games through 34 replays!

 

 

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