SOMers - Stratomatic Baseball

Members Login
Username 
 
Password 
    Remember Me  
Post Info TOPIC: Hall, Heroes and Ballpark effects.
«First  <  133 34 35 | Page of 35  sorted by


Umpire

Status: Offline
Posts: 9225
Date: February 8th
Hall, Heroes and Ballpark effects.
Permalink  
 


While I'm well aware of the construction of this league its still painful to read those pitching numbers.



__________________


Third Base Coach

Status: Online
Posts: 6290
Date: February 9th
Permalink  
 

Nitrous Oxide wrote:

While I'm well aware of the construction of this league its still painful to read those pitching numbers.


It is painful.

It is also hard to judge which pitcher might perform well for you. Blyleven is the only starter to have an ERA lower than the average pitcher's era in each of the seasons.

As we have demonstrated in this project, pitching and defense are intertwined. Walter Johnson pitched on a terrible fielding team, making his success remarkable.

 



__________________

Baseball ... this field, this game ... It is part of our past.  It reminds us all of what once was good -- and could be again.



Third Base Coach

Status: Online
Posts: 6290
Date: February 9th
Permalink  
 

From the project, we saw that relief pitching could be an important part of a successful team. However, I find it even more difficult to judge good relief pitching, especially set-up men like Tiant and McGraw:

 

 

Ave RP (14 or fewer starts)TmTWLERAGGSQSQS%CGShoSvBSHldIPHRERBBKHRWHIPH/9BB/9GIDPIRIRSc%
ARP Season 1 Even  345.433510 0042261.37340372840101.6510.64.17150.397
ARP Season 2 Adv  334.803210 0042255.7603330253681.539.646130.347
ARP Season 3 Hit Del  436.203910 0---42264.38148443143131.7411.34.37200.389
ARP Season 4 Sgl Adv  335.093510 0---42261.3733835273981.6310.73.97170.358
ARP Season 5 Slg Adv  435.483610 0043163.37241392741131.5610.33.86170.388
ARP Season 6 Mixed  335.603510 0042261.37542382740111.66113.97170.382
   20195.46212600%00241311367.3434242223165239631.6310.64.040992.261

 

Goose GossageTmTWLERAGGSQSQS%CGShoSvBSHldIPHRERBBKHRWHIPH/9BB/9GIDPIRIRSc%
TGU Season 1 EvenTGUR222.081900 0081017.31444121611.507.36.20200.100
TGU Season 2 P AdvTGUR553.062600 00102032.3241111183331.306.751270.222
TGU Season 3 Hit DelTGUR754.912600 0082025.7191414132251.256.74.63190.100
TGU Season 4 Sgl AdvTGUR333.442100 00121018.3877131931.153.96.40260.077
TGU Season 5 Slg AdvTGUR445.402100 0061021.7231413112061.579.64.63250.440
TGU Seaon 6 MixedTGUR312.302000 00102015.7165441901.289.22.30240.250
   24203.6413300 005490131.0104555371129181.347.14.97141 
                            
Tom HenkeTmTWLERAGGSQSQS%CGShoSvBSHldIPHRERBBKHRWHIPH/9BB/9GIDPIRIRSc%
WAS Season 1 EvenWASR694.503700 00143138.0452319194191.6810.74.55230.217
WAS Season 2 AdvWASR372.793300 00143042.0321813255511.366.95.42270.185
WAS Season 3 Hit DelWASR594.564600 00188253.35530272470111.489.34.14550.327
WAS Season 4 Sgl AdvWASR685.363700 00144142.0542625234871.8311.64.95300.533
WAS Season 5 Slg AdvWASR294.823800 00166037.3402020263791.779.66.33410.488
WAS Season 6 MixedWASR345.542500 00106026.0291816102971.50103.53280.393
   25464.5321600 0086304238.7255135120127280441.609.64.822204 
                            
Tug McGrawTmTWLERAGGSQSQS%CGShoSvBSHldIPHRERBBKHRWHIPH/9BB/9GIDPIRIRSc%
SRD Season 1 EvenSRDL1445.067300 00131310106.712864603184181.4910.82.69310.516
SRD Season 2 P AdvSRDL895.027500 00161218100.311461565777121.7010.25.18270.333
SRD Season 3 Hit DelSRDL1044.586900 00119898.310955505069121.62104.613310.677
SRD Season 4 Sgl AdvSRDL773.357400 0016513102.011440383788151.4810.13.310430.326
SRD Season 5 Slg AdvSRDL1063.746900 00167698.310744413074161.399.82.718350.400
SRD Seaon 6 MixedSRDL595.386900 0012127107.013964644696111.7311.73.916330.515
   54394.5442900 00845862612.7711328309251488841.5710.43.774200 
                            
Luis TiantTmTWLERAGGSQSQS%CGShoSvBSHldIPHRERBBKHRWHIPH/9BB/9GIDPIRIRSc%
LAH Season 1 EvenLBAR665.7159400%001361499.312370635269201.7611.14.711250.280
LAH Season 2 P AdvLBAR7125.42593267%101295103.012368625875161.7610.75.111250.480
LAH Season 3 Hit DelLBAR636.9862300%00971598.013281764983281.8512.14.56160.313
LAH Season 4 Sgl AdvLBAR343.67633133%0016310110.310249454578131.338.33.715290.345
LAH Season 5 Slg AdvLBAR595.05673267%001398119.312669675499231.519.54.16260.231
LAH Seaon 6 MixedLBAR875.1459300%0012104103.310960593774111.419.53.215230.348
   35415.2936919526%10754456633.37153973722954781111.5910.24.264144 
                            


__________________

Baseball ... this field, this game ... It is part of our past.  It reminds us all of what once was good -- and could be again.



Third Base Coach

Status: Online
Posts: 6290
Date: February 14th
Permalink  
 

As much fun as this project has been, it's time to start wrapping it up with a few closing thoughts, conclusions and observations. It should be noted that these conclusions only apply to the Hall and Heroes project.

Not all of the conclusions will be written in one post or in a day, but spread over several posts and days.

The first conclusion is a bit obvious, but it was the point of the project:

1.  Ballpark effects affect player and team performances.

As you can see from the chart below, using season one as the base year, the overall numbers played out as expected. In the pitcher's year, runs dropped by 18%, but rose in year 3 by 10%. There were a couple of items in these results. First, in Season 4, the expectation was that OBP would be closer to season 3 than 5. The results were probably skewed towards the pitchers. Similarly, Season 5 seemed to be skewed slightly in favor of the batters with a higher OBP than expected. Some variation and surprises were to be expected.

 

 

 Runs

% Change from
season 1

Total Bases% Change from
season 1

HRs

% Change from
season 1
OBPSLGOPS
Season 1 Even9064n/a27340n/a2331n/a0.3560.4860.842
Season 2 P Adv7426-1823449-141822-210.3440.4220.756
Season 3 Hit Del105771030985132841220.3740.5310.905
Season 4 Sgl Adv8772-526379-31912-180.3590.4600.819
Season 5 Slg Adv952852914472859230.3550.5090.864
Season 6 Mixed91601278112234200.3580.4860.844

While most individual pitchers and batters performed as would be expected, there were outliers in any given season. For example, Ernie Banks had his best slugging year in Season 2, Pitchers' Advantage, and it was his second best season overall, even out performing Season 3, Hitter's Delight.

Ernie Banks

 TmPPGABRH2B3BHRRBIBBKSBCSAvgOB%Slug%OB+SLRC/27RCE
SRD Season 1 EvenSRD615563692172336271092778000.2700.3060.4690.7754.684.618
SRD Season 2 P AdvSRD6160647100164204491403495000.2530.2930.5240.8174.79013
SRD Season 3 Hit DelSRD6156655971562573912730127010.2380.2770.4760.7534.179.623
SRD Season 4 Sgl AdvSRD615763578168223241152691000.2650.2990.4220.721473.821
SRD Season 5 Slg AdvSRD614659793168339481262999000.2810.3200.6080.9286.611111
SRD Seaon 6 MixedSRD6158656921632063813132104200.2480.2860.4710.757478.917
   932382655299115335225748178594210.2590.2920.4940.786 518103

 

Similarly, Walter Johnson has his third best ERA during Season 3, Hitters' Delight:

Walter Johnson

 TmTWLERAGGSQSQS%CGShoSvBSHldIPHRERBBKHRWHIPH/9BB/9GIDPIRIRSc%
OCG Season 1 EvenOCGR18155.213934926%200110267.7270159155107202461.419.13.62040.250
OCG Season 2 P AdvOCGR15183.8635341750%173000261.324112611286176251.258.331300.000
OCG Season 3 Hit DelOCGR15114.6535321134%192110265.3272144137103207401.419.23.52220.500
OCG Season 4 Sgl AdvOCGR19134.8136351337%191100269.3306162144111205271.5510.23.72910.000
OCG Season 5 Slg AdvOCGR12196.0040401128%140000264.030519417698197481.5310.43.32600.000
OCG Seaon 6 MixedOCGR17144.4837351440%182100263.0258142131123214271.458.84.21830.000
   96904.842222107536%10784201590.7165292785562812012131.439.33.612810 

 

As a reminder,

 

SeasonHomerunsSinglesDoublesTriples
1 (Average)1010100100
2 (Pitcher advantage)559090
3 (Hitter advantage)1515110110
4 (Singles hitter advantage)5159595
5 (Power hitter advantage)155105105

The sixth season was played where each team will play in an actual stadium (e.g, Fenway, Wrigley). The stadium chosen will be one that matches the characteristics of stadium in its best season (i.e., average, pitcher advantage, etc.):

Teams

 Best SeasonsStadium (HR: L, R, S: L, R)
ChelseaSlug 5/Hit Del 3Atl 1977 (HR: 19, 19, S: 14, 14)
FolsomSingles 4 /Even 1Arizona 2011 (HR: 11, 11 S: 14, 14)
Los AngelesHit Del 3/Slgrs 5Chicago AL 1977 (HR: 19,19 S: 13,13)
LondonNot Pitchers 2Balt 2011 (HR: 13, 13, S: 14, 8)
OhioPitchers 2/Hit Del 3San Fran 1977 (HR: 3, 6, S: 11, 6)
RockvilleHit Del 3    Texas 2011 (HR: 16,16 S: 13, 13)
San RamberPitchers 2Oak 2011 (HR: 4, 4 S: 5, 5)
TexasSingles 4   Cinc 1985 (HR: 8, 8 S: 13, 13)
ThompsonSingles 4KC 1977 (HR: 1, 1 S: 19, 13)
WaterlooSingles 4Boston 2011 (HR: 3, 8 S: 14, 17)

As Grey Eagle calculated, the average park for this round (Season 6) is HR:9.7,10.5 SI:13,11.6, and as you can see from the final statistics for each year, it played very close to statistically to Season 1.

A discussion that emerged during the project was whether you could effectively build a team around a stadium. No team in this project was built to maximize its play in a particular type of stadium. Therefore the project could not really shed much light on the topic. My opinion is that it certainly could and I pointed out that in our first Hall and Heroes project on SOMers, Seajaw won using such a strategy.

What was interesting and did emerge from the project was the complexity of the game. Rockville had a strong top of the order (Burkett, Collins, Sisler). So when Season 4 Singles Hitters Advantage, the thought was that Rockville would perform well. But the ballpark effect had a larger, negative impact on their pitching than it did a positive impact on their hitting so they did perform as well as anticipated finishing sixth. And it served as a good lesson that if you are going to build a team around a ballpark, all aspects of the game must line up with the strategy for it to be effective..

 

 



__________________

Baseball ... this field, this game ... It is part of our past.  It reminds us all of what once was good -- and could be again.



Third Base Coach

Status: Online
Posts: 6290
Date: February 15th
Permalink  
 

Conclusions/Final Thoughts/Observations:

2. Defense matters, especially on teams without a strong offense. And pitching suffers when teams do not have good fielding.

Thanks to the Ohio Chain Gang, this issue has been discussed throughout the project. At 6 of the 8 everyday positions, Ohio had players whose range was a 3 or a 4.The glove ratings were within acceptable ranges for players in those positions, but the range was poor. As Nitrous Oxide says defense is the one [element of the game] that's usually forgotten about.

CTorre 3e3 0T9p3  
1BGreenberg 4e10  
2BCarew 4e23  
SSYount 2e24  
3BWilson 4e10  
LFMusial 2e5 2T  
CFHamilton 3e8 3T  
RFHeilmann 3e7 1T  
   

At first glance, it is hard to notice from the results:

OhioWinsFinishGB
Season 1651028
Season 281415
Season 38166
Season 4661036
Season 5621031
Season 679715

There are three seasons where Ohio played near .500 ball and three season where the team was 15 games or more below. Where it shows up most notably is in the pitching:

 

Ohio Chain GangWinsFinishGBRun DiffO RankP RankRHHROB%Slug%OB+SLERAHRAHRWHIP
OCG Season 1 Even651028-10861089516841800.3570.4650.8225.88166810032451.60
OCG Season 2 P Adv81415-185874115131550.3400.4200.7604.3314487591741.41
OCG Season 3 Hit Del81661273101718481930.3710.4950.8665.81167810052721.58
OCG Season 4 Sgl Adv661036-22391081516931540.3550.4420.7975.96177810382181.68
OCG Season 5 Slg Adv621031-17191090216982280.3590.4870.8466.19170910732791.63
OCG Seaon 6 Mixed79715-9210478216211410.3460.4280.7744.9715948742121.54
 4347.821.8-6007.77.551521005710510.3550.4570.8125.999875575214001.57

To test the theory that Ohio's defense was a significant reason we ran two supplemental seasons. The first season we switched Ohio's pitching staff and Chelsea Detective's pitching staff. Chelsea which always had one of the better pitching staffs did not miss a beat using Ohio's staff. Chelsea finish fourth, only four games behind the winners, London Bankrobbers, and their team era was fourth best with a 4.88. Using Chelsea's pitching staff, Ohio finished last with 65 wins and last in ERA with a 6.10. Given that when pitching for Chelsea the pitching staff performed well (usually top 5), but when put on Ohio the pitching immediately fell to the bottom indicated the importance of fielding.

In the second supplemental season, Ohio's pitchers had their original pitching staff returned. The difference this time was that changes were made to the starting lineup:

 

Season I LINEUPS
lhp                       rhp           
J.Wilson    3B 4e10       B. Hamilton CF 3e8 +2T                                 
R.Carew     2B 4e23       J.Wilson    3B 4e10                                    
H.Heilmann  RF 3e7 +1T    S.Musial    LF 2e5 +2T                                
S.Musial    LF 2e5 +2T    H.Greenberg 1B 4e10                                   
H.Greenberg 1B 4e10       H.Heilmann  RF 3e7 +1T                                  
J.Torre     C  3e3  0T    R.Carew     2B 4e23                                
B. Hamilton CF 3e8 +2T    R.Yount     SS 2e24                                    
R.Yount     SS 2e24       J.Torre     C  3e3  0T                                  
 
Season 1(b) LINEUPS
lhp                      rhp           
J.Wilson   3B 4e10       J.Wilson   3B 4e10                                 
R.Carew    2B 4e23       S.Musial   LF 2e5 +2T                                 
H.Heilmann RF 3e7 +1T    B.Leonard  1B 1e15                                
S.Musial   LF 2e5 +2T    M.Ott      RF 2e4 -3                                   
H.Greenberg1B 4e10       J.Torre    C  3e3  0T                                  
K.Puckett  CF 1e5 -5T    K.Puckett  CF 1e5 -5T                                
J.Torre    C  3e3  0T    R.Yount    SS 2e24                                    
R.Yount    SS 2e24       B.Doerr    2B 1e12                                  
                                                            

Note that all the players used were original Ohio Chain Gang team. Kirby Puckett was promoted to the majors and Zack Wheat was designated to the minors.

The result was that Ohio won 79 games. To place that into perspective:

 

OhioWinsFinishGB
Season 1651028
Season 281415
Season 38166
Season 4661036
Season 5621031
Season 679715
Season 1 (b)79810

Tied for their 3rd best season and 14 games above their original win total in Season I. So there is an argument to be made that if defense enhanced lineup had been used in the project Ohio would have been more competitive. Ohio also had a better season batting that season which helped the win total. The pitching was also improved as the team finished 6th in ERA with a respectable 5.10. Most notably, in comparison to Season I, hits yield by the staff fell by 132 hits! So they went from the team which yield the most hits in Season I to the team that yielded the fewest hits in Season 1 (B).



__________________

Baseball ... this field, this game ... It is part of our past.  It reminds us all of what once was good -- and could be again.



Third Base Coach

Status: Online
Posts: 6290
Date: February 16th
Permalink  
 

Conclusions/Final Thoughts/Observations:

 

3. Relief pitching can play an important role in a successful season, but difficult to measure.

Is it possible to shorten the game with a lights out bullpen in the Hall and Heroes I set? Maybe, but it would not be easy to accomplish, and even if you did, it might be hard to notice.

In Seasons 1 and 2, the San Ramblers bullpen seemed to play an important role, but it is hard to tell how much of a role. Remember, long inning relievers, mop-uppers, set up men and closers statistics are mixed together in the chart below.

Season 1: Team Relief Pitching
City        ReERA ReW ReL ReWin%  Sv  BS Hld  ReIP  ReH  ReR ReER ReHR ReBB ReIBB  ReK ReOpAvg  IR ISP IRS IRSc%
----------- ----- --- --- ------ --- --- --- ----- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----- ---- ------- --- --- --- -----
Folsom       4.39  15  16   .484  10   7   0 268.2  290  142  131   39  103     6  146    .277  65  41  25  .385
Waterloo     4.59  18  17   .514  16  10   2 259.0  287  149  132   41  123    12  152    .284  89  53  37  .416
London       4.80  24  14   .632  39  12  23 391.2  444  230  209   57  186    10  248    .288 111  63  41  .369
Thompson     5.02  10  11   .476  14   6   2 249.1  289  153  139   39  128    14  135    .296  83  45  28  .337
Texas        5.15  26  22   .542  34  13  25 396.2  454  249  227   58  172     8  272    .288 114  67  45  .395
San Rambler  5.36  36  15   .706  30  17  16 379.1  438  246  226   73  146    11  279    .289 116  61  43  .371
Chelsea      5.50  15  13   .536  12  10   2 260.1  311  178  159   57  101     7  179    .297  66  37  25  .379
Los Angeles  5.85  19  22   .463  23  19  17 395.1  483  276  257   77  191    13  242    .304  93  54  29  .312
Rockville    6.03  17  23   .425  28  26  15 361.1  463  269  242   60  183    13  229    .315 104  58  44  .423
Ohio         7.11  10  23   .303  12  12   3 269.2  345  225  213   57  141    12  191    .316  93  48  55  .591
----------- ----- --- --- ------ --- --- --- ----- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----- ---- ------- --- --- --- -----
Sum           --- 190 176    --- 218 132 105   --- 3804 2117 1935  558 1474   106 2073     --- 934 527 372  .398
Avg           ---  19  18    ---  22  13  11   ---  380  212  194   56  147    11  207     ---  93  53  37  .398

 

BULLPEN LOGIC  SCORE       OUTS    BatType    Force?  ID
Line  1:      0 to  5   25  to 27   LRSlr      No     A-closer
Line  2:      0 to  5   21  to 24   LRSlr      No     B-Set-up
Line  3:    -99 to -5    0  to 15   LRSlr      No     C-Long Relief
Line  4:     -5 to  5   28  to 99   LRSlr      No     D-Extra Innings
Line  5:    -99 to -5   21  to 99   LRSlr      No     E-mop up losing
Line  6:      5 to 99   21  to 99   LRSlr      No     F-mop up winning
 
ID-NAME           PECKING ORDER
A-closer          J.Reardon T.McGraw  J.Smoltz  V.Willis  P.Alexand A.Joss
                  B.Pierce  J.Kaat    L.Warneke
B-Set-up          T.McGraw  B.Pierce  J.Reardon V.Willis  J.Smoltz  L.Warneke
                  J.Kaat    P.Alexand A.Joss
C-Long Relief     V.Willis  J.Smoltz  L.Warneke B.Pierce  T.McGraw  J.Kaat
                  A.Joss    P.Alexand J.Reardon
D-Extra Innings   J.Reardon V.Willis  T.McGraw  B.Pierce  J.Smoltz  A.Joss
                  J.Kaat    P.Alexand L.Warneke
E-mop up losing   J.Smoltz  L.Warneke B.Pierce  V.Willis  T.McGraw  J.Reardon
                  A.Joss    J.Kaat    P.Alexand
F-mop up winning  V.Willis  T.McGraw  B.Pierce  J.Reardon J.Smoltz  L.Warneke
                  A.Joss    P.Alexand J.Kaat
 

San Ramblers Desert Babblers Pitching
Name        Tm  T    W  L   ERA   G  GS QS CG Sho Sv BS Hld     IP    H   R  ER  BB    K  HR  H/9 BB/9 GIDP  IR IRSc%
----------- --- --- -- -- ----- --- --- -- -- --- -- -- --- ------ ---- --- --- --- ---- --- ---- ---- ---- --- -----
J.Reardon   SRD R   11  4  3.62  39   0  0  0   0 13  2   0   49.2   40  20  20  14   42   6  7.2  2.5    5  18  .167
P.Alexander SRD R   16  9  4.27  36  34 16  6   2  1  0   0  246.2  252 128 117  92  137  30  9.2  3.4   30   0  .000
A.Joss      SRD R   11 11  4.77  32  30 14  7   4  0  0   0  207.1  237 118 110  53   84  23 10.3  2.3   19   0  .000
J.Kaat      SRD L   14 11  5.05  39  37 14  4   0  0  0   0  249.1  290 156 140 109  144  41 10.5  3.9   18   1  .000
T.McGraw    SRD L   14  4  5.06  73   0  0  0   0 13 13  10  106.2  128  64  60  31   84  18 10.8  2.6    9  31  .516
L.Warneke   SRD R    1  2  5.31  26   0  0  0   0  0  0   0   39.0   50  27  23  17   22   7 11.5  3.9    6  10  .700
V.Willis    SRD R    2  2  5.50  35   4  1  0   0  1  0   0   68.2   80  44  42  35   29  12 10.5  4.6    4  26  .346
R.Johnson   SRD L    8 11  5.53  31  31 12  1   0  0  0   0  201.2  231 141 124  94  272  39 10.3  4.2   18   0  .000
J.Smoltz    SRD R    3  0  5.91  44   0  0  0   0  1  0   0   64.0   67  44  42  27   68  13  9.4  3.8    4  10  .100
D.Gooden    SRD R    5  9  6.12  21  21  7  2   0  0  0   0  129.1  158 100  88  47  127  32 11.0  3.3   14   0  .000
B.Pierce    SRD L    8  6  6.37  50   5  2  2   0  1  2   6   94.2  130  75  67  44   64  21 12.4  4.2   16  20  .350
----------- --- --- -- -- ----- --- --- -- -- --- -- -- --- ------ ---- --- --- --- ---- --- ---- ---- ---- --- -----
Sum         --- --- 93 69  5.15 426 162 66 22   6 30 17  16 1457.0 1663 917 833 563 1073 242 10.3  3.5  143 116  .371

 

You can see the set-up pitchers and closer have an amazing 33-14 record, with 27 saves, 17 blown saves and 16 holds. And yet as a team, they have a relatively high relief ERA. (Note: I don't put a lot of weight on blown saves and IRSC% because they are overly dependent on the situations.) For some reason, set-up pitchers seemed to have a rougher experience than closers. As you can see from Tug McGraw's game log he was effective in about 2/3 of the games he pitched during season 1:

 DATE Opp  INN  H  R ER BB Ks HR WLS  RECORD SV   ERA  Ks
 4/ 6 LBA  1.0  2  4  3  3  1  1       0- 0   0 27.00   1
 4/11 LBA  1.0  1  0  0  1  1  0       0- 0   0 13.50   2
 4/14 TGU  0.2  0  0  0  0  0  0       0- 0   0 10.13   2
 4/18 OCG  1.0  1  2  2  1  2  0       0- 0   0 12.27   4
 4/19 OCG  1.0  2  2  2  0  1  1 W     1- 0   0 13.50   5
 4/24 TBE  2.0  1  1  1  0  3  1 W     2- 0   0 10.80   8
 4/25 TBE  1.0  3  2  2  0  0  1       2- 0   0 11.74   8
 4/27 WAS  2.0  1  1  1  0  1  1       2- 0   0 10.24   9
 4/30 FBL  0.1  0  0  0  0  0  0       2- 0   0  9.90   9
 5/ 3 LAH  1.0  2  2  2  0  1  1  L    2- 1   0 10.64  10
 5/10 RLO  1.0  0  0  0  0  1  0 W     3- 1   0  9.75  11
 5/13 TGU  3.0  1  0  0  0  1  0   S   3- 1   1  7.80  12
 5/14 CDE  2.0  1  0  0  0  2  0 W     4- 1   1  6.88  14
 5/16 CDE  2.0  1  0  0  0  3  0       4- 1   1  6.16  17
 5/17 FBL  1.0  3  1  1  0  0  0       4- 1   1  6.30  17
 5/19 FBL  2.0  3  2  2  0  1  0       4- 1   1  6.55  18
 5/21 TBE  1.0  2  0  0  1  2  0       4- 1   1  6.26  20
 6/ 1 CDE  2.0  0  0  0  1  0  0   S   4- 1   2  5.76  20
 6/ 3 CDE  1.1  2  2  2  0  2  1       4- 1   2  6.15  22
 6/ 5 TBE  2.0  3  2  2  0  3  1       4- 1   2  6.35  25
 6/ 6 TBE  1.0  4  2  2  0  0  0       4- 1   2  6.75  25
 6/ 8 CDE  0.2  0  0  0  0  1  0   S   4- 1   3  6.60  26
 6/ 9 CDE  1.0  2  0  0  0  1  0   S   4- 1   4  6.39  27
 6/11 LAH  1.2  1  0  0  1  2  0 W     5- 1   4  6.06  29
 6/12 LAH  1.0  2  2  2  0  1  0       5- 1   4  6.42  30
 6/14 RLO  3.0  4  3  3  1  2  0       5- 1   4  6.63  32
 6/15 RLO  2.0  2  0  0  0  0  0       5- 1   4  6.28  32
 6/18 WAS  1.0  0  0  0  0  0  0       5- 1   4  6.13  32
 6/20 TGU  1.0  0  0  0  0  1  0   S   5- 1   5  5.98  33
 6/22 OCG  2.0  6  5  3  0  1  1  L    5- 2   5  6.33  34
 6/26 LAH  1.1  2  1  1  0  0  0 W     6- 2   5  6.34  34
 6/27 LAH  1.0  0  0  0  0  1  0       6- 2   5  6.20  35
 6/29 CDE  2.1  6  4  4  0  3  0       6- 2   5  6.65  38
 6/30 CDE  2.0  1  0  0  0  0  0       6- 2   5  6.39  38
 7/ 1 TGU  1.0  0  0  0  0  1  0       6- 2   5  6.26  39
 7/ 8 FBL  1.0  3  1  1  1  1  1 W     7- 2   5  6.31  40
 7/11 TBE  2.0  1  0  0  0  2  0       7- 2   5  6.08  42
 7/12 TBE  0.1  0  0  0  0  1  0       7- 2   5  6.04  43
 7/14 FBL  1.0  3  2  2  2  1  0  L    7- 3   5  6.26  44
 7/15 FBL  1.0  1  0  0  0  2  0       7- 3   5  6.14  46
 7/17 OCG  1.1  3  2  2  0  1  1       7- 3   5  6.32  47
 7/18 OCG  2.0  4  2  2  1  0  0       7- 3   5  6.41  47
 7/20 TBE  1.0  1  0  0  1  1  0 W     8- 3   5  6.30  48
 7/22 RLO  1.0  1  0  0  1  1  0       8- 3   5  6.20  49
 7/24 RLO  0.2  1  1  1  3  0  0       8- 3   5  6.28  49
 7/25 WAS  1.0  0  0  0  2  1  0       8- 3   5  6.18  50
 7/29 CDE  2.2  1  0  0  1  0  0   S   8- 3   6  5.92  50
 7/31 FBL  1.0  1  1  1  1  1  1       8- 3   6  5.97  51
 8/ 2 FBL  2.0  1  0  0  1  2  0       8- 3   6  5.80  53
 8/ 3 CDE  1.0  0  0  0  0  1  0   S   8- 3   7  5.71  54
 8/ 5 CDE  2.0  2  0  0  0  2  0       8- 3   7  5.55  56
 8/ 8 WAS  1.2  3  1  0  0  0  0       8- 3   7  5.42  56
 8/ 9 RLO  3.0  2  0  0  1  0  0   S   8- 3   8  5.21  56
 8/11 RLO  1.0  3  1  1  1  0  0 W     9- 3   8  5.26  56
 8/13 LAH  1.1  3  1  1  0  3  1 W    10- 3   8  5.29  59
 8/14 LAH  1.0  1  1  1  0  1  1   S  10- 3   9  5.33  60
 8/16 LBA  1.1  3  0  0  0  2  0 W    11- 3   9  5.24  62
 8/17 LBA  1.0  4  2  2  0  1  0      11- 3   9  5.40  63
 8/20 FBL  2.0  2  1  1  0  3  0      11- 3   9  5.38  66
 8/21 WAS  1.2  3  0  0  0  2  0      11- 3   9  5.27  68
 8/23 WAS  1.2  4  2  2  3  2  0  L   11- 4   9  5.38  70
 8/24 LBA  1.0  0  0  0  0  0  0   S  11- 4  10  5.32  70
 8/27 RLO  2.0  4  2  2  1  3  0      11- 4  10  5.40  73
 8/28 RLO  1.0  1  0  0  0  0  0   S  11- 4  11  5.34  73
 8/30 OCG  1.0  1  0  0  0  1  0   S  11- 4  12  5.28  74
 8/31 OCG  1.2  2  2  2  0  2  1 W    12- 4  12  5.38  76
 9/ 2 LBA  2.0  0  0  0  0  2  0   S  12- 4  13  5.27  78
 9/ 3 LBA  2.0  1  0  0  0  2  0      12- 4  13  5.16  80
 9/ 6 LAH  1.0  1  0  0  1  2  0      12- 4  13  5.11  82
 9/10 WAS  3.0  4  2  2  1  0  1 W    13- 4  13  5.13  82
 9/12 TGU  1.0  1  1  1  0  1  1      13- 4  13  5.17  83
 9/14 RLO  2.0  2  1  1  0  0  1      13- 4  13  5.16  83
 9/15 RLO  2.0  1  0  0  0  1  0 W    14- 4  13  5.06  84

McGraw was on of the more effective set-up me in the league, and arguably a key component during San Ramblers early success in the project.



__________________

Baseball ... this field, this game ... It is part of our past.  It reminds us all of what once was good -- and could be again.



VIP Season Ticket Holder

Status: Offline
Posts: 414
Date: February 17th
Permalink  
 

McGraw's Season I setup man numbers can be interpreted a few ways. Below is a Tug-of-War comparison.

Pluses:
1) Wins: McGraw recorded 14 wins with a very impressive league leading winning percent of .778. The 14 wins were only 4 behind the leader. McGraw's 14-4 record was a major part of the SRD bullpen going 36-15.

2) Saves: McGraw had 13 saves. The 13 saves ties him for 5th place in the league. Among the relief pitchers he tied with was Jeff Reardon, who is SRD's closer. They were only one save behind the 3rd place total of 14.

3) Holds: McGraw had 10 holds which placed him 4th in the league (Day 14, Tiant 14, Dihigo 11). His 10 holds were more than that of FIVE ENTIRE TEAMS. League-wise, the hold stat seemed very low (more on that later), so those numbers are even more valuable that what they appear (especially when comparing to modern day hold stats).

4) Games: McGraw tied for the league lead in Games Pitched with 73. He also finished 2nd in Games Finished with 45. He was used often on a team that won the league. In his "top of the rotation" HAL bullpen roles of setup and extra innings(SRD went 14-4 in EIs), he had to be a part of a lot of those team wins. It would be interesting to see the team winning % in games in which McGraw pitched.

5) Awards: McGraw helped Jeff Reardon, the team closer, win the Cy Yoiung.

Minuses:
1) Blown Saves: Ok, maybe somewhat situational, but 13 blown saves. And it is clear what it means - McGraw gave up the lead. ONLY TWO ENTIRE TEAMS had more blown saves (Rockville 26, LA 19). Granted some teams didn't rely so much on relief pitchers or just didn't get the save opportunities, but ...

2) IRSC%: Ok, even more situational and potentially biased based on that. But .516. That means that over half the runners on base came in to score. One good(using a large sample to remove some bias) comparison is with the league average of .398. When McGraw is above (pretty high above) league average that can not be considered good.

3) Wins: 14 wins is good, very good. But in 8 of those wins here were McGraw's numbers.
 IP    H  ER Ks HR  W   ERA
12.1  20  11  3  6  8  8.03

My thinking is that a bunch of those BSs turned into Ws, maybe about 8 of them?

4) Games: As above, McGraw appeared in a league leading 73 games. Though a lot of appearances is usually a good thing, it can also inflate the good numbers somewhat, especially on a winning team. McGraw no doubt had plenty of opportunities to achieve his numbers. Some teams had very low stats in relief numbers (saves, blown saves and holds). A lot of that may be attributed to not being in the situation to even attempt the stat. I find it almost crazy that Folsom did not even record 1 hold! And 4 other teams had less than 3 holds!

5) Awards: McGraw helped Jeff Reardon, the team closer, win the Cy Young?



__________________


Third Base Coach

Status: Online
Posts: 6290
Date: February 18th
Permalink  
 

All good points -- which is the reason for the conclusion/observation that relief pitching can be an important part of a successful season, but hard to measure ... or for that matter recognize.

There are a few reasons for the low hold totals:

  1. alll the teams were set for either normal relief usage or conservative. Initially all teams were set normal, but in my test seasons I noted that some teams seemed to be hurt by the setting so I switched them to conservative. This seems to have been the biggest driver for the hold results as the teams that higher holds and saves were consistent throughout the project. The other factor was that teams with only a few holds had pitchers who could pitch deeper into games.
  2. Not all teams had equal chances for holds. Some teams did not have enough leads in late innings to achieve them. Others had highly explosive offenses and the save/hold opportunities were not there.
  3. Closers were not forced. As you can see from McGraw he wound up with 13 saves in that first season. I would imagine that for some of those saves by the end of the 8th it was no longer a save situation so McGraw stayed in the game. But some of those saves would have become holds if a closer was forced.

Frankly, I chose to focus on SRD and McGraw because it is hard to tell if they had a good season. Texas and London had comparable years. Undoubtedly, SRD's 36-15 record had huge implications for their winning the league, but if you stripped out the decisions, it would be hard to determine based on the peripherals that SRD had one of the better seasons.

I would have to check to see how many of those 8 wins were leads that he relinquished. The problem with the blown save is the a reliever can come into a game with a one run lead and bases loaded with no outs. The first batter he faces grounds into a 6-4-3 double play and the next batter pops out. He is still charged with a blown save.

McGraw's performance was common among set-up men. Here are the comparisons to the pitchers you indicated (Day, Dihigo, Tiant):

Name        Tm  T    W  L   ERA   G  GS QS CG Sho Sv BS Hld     IP    H   R  ER  BB    K  HR  H/9 BB/9 GIDP  IR IRSc%
T.McGraw    SRD L   14  4  5.06  73   0  0  0   0 13 13  10  106.2  128  64  60  31   84  18 10.8  2.6    9  31  .516
L.Day       LAH R    5  5  3.95  61   0  0  0   0  5  3  14   93.1   97  44  41  40   52   8  9.4  3.9   11  26  .231
L.Tiant     LBA R    6  6  5.71  59   4  0  0   0 13  6  14   99.1  123  70  63  52   69  20 11.1  4.7   11  25  .280
M.Dihigo    TBE R    8  6  5.59  73   0  0  0   0  2  3  11  120.2  141  75  75  51   68  13 10.5  3.8   17  20  .250

 



__________________

Baseball ... this field, this game ... It is part of our past.  It reminds us all of what once was good -- and could be again.



Third Base Coach

Status: Online
Posts: 6290
Date: February 18th
Permalink  
 

In 7 of his 14 wins, McGraw had a blown save. In a four (or five -- it is hard to tell in one game what the situation was when he came in from the box score) of those games where he blew a save, he came in protecting a one run lead.  Although I did not count them, it seemed in most situations he entered mid-inning with runners on base. Another way to look at it, McGraw could have had another 2-3 holds/saves and 2-3 fewer blown saves and 2-3 fewer wins, if he had an average IRSc%. It should be noted that McGraw had  36 save/hold opportunities converting 23 of them (63%).

On a different note, I checked those four teams with low holds, and there was another reason for why that occurred: questionable performances from the set-up pitchers:

Name          Tm  T    W  L   ERA   G  GS QS CG Sho Sv BS Hld     IP    H   R  ER  BB   K  HR  H/9 BB/9 GIDP IR IRSc%
D.Vance       FBL R    7  9  7.13  38   0  0  0   0  1  5   0   64.1   78  53  51  31  56  12 10.9  4.3    4 13  .692
B.Grimes      TGU R    4  2  4.39  49   0  0  0   0  6  5   1   84.0   95  49  41  48  38  12 10.2  5.1    9 36  .528
R.Face        CDE R    5  6  7.36  49   0  0  0   0  7  6   1   69.2   99  60  57  28  49  20 12.8  3.6    9 26  .462
D.Drysdale    OCG R    3  4  6.06  38   0  0  0   0  0  3   3   65.1   88  44  44  23  56  12 12.1  3.2    6 16  .813
M.Welch       WAS R    2  3  4.91  42   0  0  0   0  0  2   0   62.1   78  39  34  31  30  12 11.3  4.5    7 22  .500

 

 



-- Edited by Tall Tactician on Saturday 18th of February 2017 12:09:39 PM

__________________

Baseball ... this field, this game ... It is part of our past.  It reminds us all of what once was good -- and could be again.



VIP Season Ticket Holder

Status: Offline
Posts: 414
Date: February 19th
Permalink  
 

Some very detailed research! McGraw's ups and downs probably mirrors the league in general. Offenses slugging back and forth in almost every inning and leads changing frequently. McGraw did have bad spells, but based on the ERAs, every pitcher in this league did. One thing that makes McGraw unique is his 5R balance for a lefty. No doubt thanks to the screwball. The other noted screwballer, Carl Hubbell, is also a 5R lefty. There are situations where this strange combination could be very advantageous or - as with any high balance pitcher rating - situations where McGraw could be in trouble. HAL used him frequently, so I am guessing that he was finding the proper spots. But I wonder how opponent HAL then countered - do you pinch hit a lefty against a lefty?

I still thought that it is strange that a team had 0 holds for a season. You would think that at least a few holds would have just happened. But I looked through the first 6 seasons and though there were no other 0 seasons, there were five 1 hold seasons. So for the overall settings and the way the league is configured, low hold totals were a normal occurrence. Teams that recorded low holds had a tight correlation with having a high number of complete games (no doubt an affect from conservative setting on relief that was pointed out as being the main driver behind this). The relief usage does look to be a powerful setting and appears it can really impact the game. But that was only a "Normal" & "Conservative" mix, looks like there is also a "Very Conservative" and even a "Dead Ball" for the relief usage settings ... !?!

__________________


Third Base Coach

Status: Online
Posts: 6290
Date: February 19th
Permalink  
 

Conclusions/Thoughts/Observations

4. Hitters are more predictable than pitchers.

Just like real life. Anyone who plays fantasy knows that pitchers are less predictable than hitters. Injuries and tired arms play into it. And of course the offensive and defensive team behind the pitchers have a large influence, and as we discussed earlier that's especially true in Stratomatic. What's interesting is that the teams were consistent behind the pitchers throughout the project and still pitchers' performances fluctuated more than the batters. O.k., but how do you back-up the claim. Well, I looked at the number of pitchers who finished in the top 10 ERA and the number of batters who finished in the top 10 in Runs Created over the six years. Results:

  • 30 different pitchers finished in the top 10 ERA as opposed to 20 batters who finished in the top 10 in runs created.
  • Only 1 pitcher made the top 10 five times (Greg Maddux) and 4 pitchers made it four times (Matthewson, TF Brown, Alexander, Paige). On the offensive side 2 batters made it on the top 10 list all six seasons (Ruth, Gibson), 2 batters made it five times (T. Williams, Ba Bonds), and 4 made it four times.
  • On the flip side, there were 15 pitchers who finished in the top 10 ERA once as opposed to 6 batters who finished in the top 10 run creation only once.

I think you would find a similar story if you used wins, WHIP or OPS, OBP, etc. (I am not going to take the time to calculate those categories.)

Pitchers are more volatile than hitters.

 

5. Teams cannot live on homeruns alone.

There is no question about the importance of hitting homeruns to having a productive offense.

The lack of power can hurt a team. Take for example the Thompson Gunners and Ohio Chain Gang. The Thompson Gunners were the team that scored the fewest runs and had the fewest homeruns and the third highest Runs/HR (4.22 which indicates the TGU were the third least dependent team on homeruns to score) and the Ohio Chain Gang which had the highest runs/HR (4.90 the least dependent on HRs to score) regularly finished in the bottom half of the league in scoring.

But too much of a good thing can be a bad thing. Take the Waterloo Sunsets which was the team most dependent on homeruns to score (3.24), and regularly finished in the bottom half of the league in runs scored. The London Bankrobbers are an interesting team in this regard. In the seasons where they were most dependent on homeruns (seasons 5 and 6), they had their worse offensive output finishing 7th and 8th in runs scored. In the season, they were least dependent on homeruns they had their highest finish in runs scored (3rd).

Then there are the Rockville Locomotive and the Texas Brown Eyes who finished high in runs scored (2nd and 3rd respectively), but were also among the least dependent on homeruns to score (4.85 - 2nd least dependent, 3.95 - 4th least dependent).

The team that scored the most runs in the league, Chelsea Detectives, were right in the middle finishing the least dependent on homeruns to score (3.87).

 

ChelseaO Rank*RHTBHRAvgOB%Slug%OB+SLRuns/HR
CDE Season 1 Even5896167727852330.2930.3600.4860.8463.85
CDE Season 2 Pit Adv4755148423341630.2650.3380.4160.7544.63
CDE Season 3 Hit Del11139186132923130.3160.3850.5590.9443.64
CDE Season 4 Sgl Adv7859167926221880.2950.3600.4600.8204.57
CDE Season 5 Slg Adv2996168530292920.2910.3630.5220.8853.41
CDE Seaon 6 Mixed11116183232282990.3090.3730.5450.9183.73
 3.35761102181729014880.2950.3630.4990.8623.87
           
FolsomO Rank*RHTBHRAvgOB%Slug%OB+SLRuns/HR
FBL Season 1 Even3945163427682510.2830.3590.4800.8393.76
FBL Season 2 P Adv9689142823171830.2590.3340.4210.7553.77
FBL Season 3 Hit Del81017172530022830.3000.3760.5230.8993.59
FBL Season 4 Sgl Adv4908166427252220.2920.3630.4780.8404.09
FBL Season 5 Slg Adv11005165229773030.2870.3710.5180.8883.32
FBL Seaon 6 Mixed21016171429062280.2990.3750.5060.8814.46
 4.5558098171669514700.2870.3630.4880.8513.80
           
London BankrobbersO Rank*RHTBHRAvgOB%Slug%OB+SLRuns/HR
LBA Season 1 Even4918159327242450.2800.3540.4780.8333.75
LBA Season 2 P Adv6736139223281920.2510.3300.4200.7503.83
LBA Season 3 Hit Del51082170630452990.2960.3750.5280.9033.62
LBA Season 4 Sgl Adv3913166326551900.2900.3600.4630.8234.81
LBA Season 5 Slg Adv7926157428862960.2780.3530.5090.8623.13
LBA Seaon 6 Mixed8848150826772850.2680.3420.4750.8172.98
 5.5542394361631515070.2770.3530.4790.8323.60
           
Los Angeles Have NotsO Rank*RHTBHRAvgOB%Slug%OB+SLRuns/HR
LAH Season 1 Even9854158826932500.2770.3470.4690.8163.42
LAH Season 2 P Adv8697141523171970.2550.3240.4170.7423.54
LAH Season 3 Hit Del41083186533513380.3140.3760.5650.9413.20
LAH Season 4 Sgl Adv8833164226032030.2840.3500.4500.8004.10
LAH Season 5 Slg Adv5959164429913080.2860.3480.5210.8693.11
LAH Seaon 6 Mixed31001177130893090.3030.3670.5290.8963.24
 6.2542799251704416050.2870.3520.4930.8453.38
           
Ohio Chain GangO Rank*RHTBHRAvgOB%Slug%OB+SLRuns/HR
OCG Season 1 Even6895168426831800.2920.3570.4650.8224.97
OCG Season 2 P Adv5741151323241550.2730.3400.4200.7604.78
OCG Season 3 Hit Del71017184829351930.3120.3710.4950.8665.27
OCG Season 4 Sgl Adv9815169325371540.2950.3550.4420.7975.29
OCG Season 5 Slg Adv9902169828012280.2950.3590.4870.8463.96
OCG Seaon 6 Mixed10782162124321410.2850.3460.4280.7745.55
 7.75152100571571210510.2920.3550.4570.8124.90
           
Rockville LocomotivesO Rank*RHTBHRAvgOB%Slug%OB+SLRuns/HR
RLO Season 1 Even2969176728062100.3080.3760.4890.8644.61
RLO Season 2 P Adv3766152222881510.2730.3460.4110.7575.07
RLO Season 3 Hit Del21126193630682250.3290.3960.5220.9185.00
RLO Season 4 Sgl Adv2924179826871590.3080.3770.4600.8375.81
RLO Season 5 Slg Adv10897164427212250.2870.3580.4750.8323.99
RLO Seaon 6 Mixed4962173827481980.3050.3790.4830.8624.86
 3.85644104051631811680.3020.3720.4740.8464.83
           
Sam RamblersO Rank*RHTBHRAvgOB%Slug%OB+SLRuns/HR
SRD Season 1 Even1974166728722540.2890.3570.4980.8553.83
SRD Season 2 P Adv2819147925562370.2660.3430.4600.8033.46
SRD Season 3 Hit Del61063174131903230.3000.3700.5500.9203.29
SRD Season 4 Sgl Adv10802156925071860.2760.3470.4400.7874.31
SRD Season 5 Slg Adv4977161930023180.2820.3550.5230.8783.07
SRD Seaon 6 Mixed7850159127002410.2760.3440.4680.8123.53
 5.0548596661682715590.2820.3530.4900.8433.52
           
Texas Brown EyesO Rank*RHTBHRAvgOB%Slug%OB+SLRuns/HR
TBE Season 1  Even7885154425472130.2720.3550.4490.8044.15
TBE Season 2 P Adv1845147824241990.2640.3500.4320.7824.25
TBE Season 3 Hit Del31117174830742950.3000.3790.5280.9073.79
TBE Season 4 Sgl Adv1978166927092090.2940.3700.4770.8474.68
TBE Season 5 Slg Adv3990158929393090.2800.3600.5180.8783.20
TBE Seaon 6 Mixed5928158526952290.2820.3660.4790.8444.05
 3.3574396131638814540.2820.3640.4810.8443.95
           
Thompson GunnersO Rank*RHTBHRAvgOB%Slug%OB+SLRuns/HR
TGU Season 1 Even10848162026802050.2870.3450.4760.8204.14
TGU Season 2 P Adv7713148923711600.2630.3210.4180.7404.46
TGU Season 3 Hit Del10910173029222450.2970.3560.5010.8573.71
TGU Season 4 Sgl Adv6864169925711650.2970.3540.4500.8045.24
TGU Season 5 Slg Adv8923161728492570.2830.3380.4990.8373.59
TGU Seaon 6 Mixed9784162125621630.2870.3400.4530.7934.81
 8.3504297761595511950.2860.3420.4660.8094.22
           
Waterloo SunsetsO Rank*RHTBHRAvgOB%Slug%OB+SLRuns/HR
WAS Season 1 Even8880155927822900.2750.3480.4920.8393.03
WAS Season 2 Adv10665132921901850.2430.3130.4000.7133.59
WAS Season 3 Hit Del9963169131063270.2910.3550.5350.8892.94
WAS Season 4 Sgl Adv5876167027812360.2890.3510.4820.8333.71
WAS Season 5 Slg Adv6953157829493230.2770.3430.5170.8602.95
WAS Season 6 Mixed6873158127742490.2810.3440.4930.8363.51
 7.3521094081658216100.2760.3420.4870.8293.24

 

6. TT's ability to predict season outcomes is questionable. wink

While I will be responding to questions and comments, this is a wrap on this project. Thanks to those who have followed along, and especially those who have pushed the conversation by making insightful comments, posting statistics, asking probing questions, etc.



__________________

Baseball ... this field, this game ... It is part of our past.  It reminds us all of what once was good -- and could be again.

«First  <  133 34 35 | Page of 35  sorted by
 
Quick Reply

Please log in to post quick replies.



Create your own FREE Forum
Report Abuse
Powered by ActiveBoard