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General Manager

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The 2017 Seattle Mariners thread
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One other thing...I have seen a LOT more hitters swing on extreme hitter counts, ESPECIALLY 3-0, then I've seen in a long time.

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nacster wrote:

One other thing...I have seen a LOT more hitters swing on extreme hitter counts, ESPECIALLY 3-0, then I've seen in a long time.


Are you saying that from the standpoint of the manager actually allowing more hitters to be aggressive in those counts?  You always hear about guys who have the "green light," just like certain base stealers, who can go pretty much whenever they want to.

There have always been plenty of guys willing to go after cripple pitches.  The problem for the hitter is simply one of discipline, to be able to lay off the pitch if it is not exactly what they are looking for.

After all, it might be the best pitch they'll get to hit in that entire PA, if a pitcher is really trying to get back into the count.



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Yes, ESPECIALLY the Cubs games I've watched....I think the more you get the old guard out of the dugouts (Scioscia, Collins, Baker) and get the more progressive thinking guys in, you are going to see more and more things like that.

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Interesting numbers...

Mike Zunino BAbip since returning from Tacoma: .524.  BAbip last eight games: .688.  He has 14 hits in the 18 ABs in which he put the ball in play (30 ABs total in those eight games).

Nelson Cruz home/road BA split: .340/.255. That's right. Nellie is batting 85 points higher at Safeco, than he is on the road.



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seajaw wrote:

Interesting numbers...

Mike Zunino BAbip since returning from Tacoma: .524.  BAbip last eight games: .688.  He has 14 hits in the 18 ABs in which he put the ball in play (30 ABs total in those eight games).

Nelson Cruz home/road BA split: .340/.255. That's right. Nellie is batting 85 points higher at Safeco, than he is on the road.


 Zunino's career BAbip is .259, standard league average is right around .300.  His problems are two-fold.  One is as you said, he has been a dead pull hitter, which means lots of roll-over grounders or weak pop ups.  The other is his career K rate of 33.1% (that is plate appearances not at bats).  So if you get 3 AB's in a game, figuring you may get pinch hit for, batting at the end of the lineup, that means one K a game.  If you are 40 points below league average on balls in play, you aren't having good at bats game in and game out.

I still am holding judgement, it's been a hot week for sure, but this guy Thames for Milwaukee, who was Jesus the first month....in the last 28 days he is hitting .148 with 2 homers, his BAbip is .200 (FWIW, his K rate is 29.6%, again using plate appearances).



__________________

"NACSTER'S HISTORICAL REPLAY"

33 REPLAYS IN THE BOOKS!

1876-1883

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1906

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1943, 1946

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1976

1986

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37,117 regular season games through 34 replays!

 

 



VP of Operations

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nacster wrote:
seajaw wrote:

Interesting numbers...

Mike Zunino BAbip since returning from Tacoma: .524.  BAbip last eight games: .688.  He has 14 hits in the 18 ABs in which he put the ball in play (30 ABs total in those eight games).

Nelson Cruz home/road BA split: .340/.255. That's right. Nellie is batting 85 points higher at Safeco, than he is on the road.


 Zunino's career BAbip is .259, standard league average is right around .300.  His problems are two-fold.  One is as you said, he has been a dead pull hitter, which means lots of roll-over grounders or weak pop ups.  The other is his career K rate of 33.1% (that is plate appearances not at bats).  So if you get 3 AB's in a game, figuring you may get pinch hit for, batting at the end of the lineup, that means one K a game.  If you are 40 points below league average on balls in play, you aren't having good at bats game in and game out.

I still am holding judgement, it's been a hot week for sure, but this guy Thames for Milwaukee, who was Jesus the first month....in the last 28 days he is hitting .148 with 2 homers, his BAbip is .200 (FWIW, his K rate is 29.6%, again using plate appearances).


I understand completely.  It is an extremely small sample size (30 ABs) over the last eight games.  Even just since he's returned from Tacoma.

But you have to start somewhere, and it is a drastic change.

Again, I get back to the point that Zunino might actually be learning how to hit, rather than going on raw talent/potential.  Over the last few seasons, they've talked a lot about how he never should have been called up so quickly.  The M's simply had nowhere else to turn.

Those 96 Minor League games he played before being called up for the first time amount to just over two-third's of a single season.  He really got cheated, in that regard.

We'll see how his makeover takes hold over time.



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Can't believe he's already had as many games as he has....this is his 5th year already

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"NACSTER'S HISTORICAL REPLAY"

33 REPLAYS IN THE BOOKS!

1876-1883

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1906

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1936-1937

1943, 1946

1956-1963

1976

1986

1991

37,117 regular season games through 34 replays!

 

 



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nacster wrote:

Can't believe he's already had as many games as he has....this is his 5th year already


An idea of just how much raw talent he has.

He needed proper grooming and never got it.



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seajaw wrote:
nacster wrote:

Can't believe he's already had as many games as he has....this is his 5th year already


An idea of just how much raw talent he has.

He needed proper grooming and never got it.


 If he can hit .230ish, he will be a longtime kinda guy.  A team just cannot afford to carry a guy that hits .200 unless he is Ozzie Smith or has an OBP 100 points higher then his average.

I am going to use Rob Deer as an example.  For years Deer was a passable fielder, and from 1986 to 1988 he hit .232, .238, and .252.  He stole some bases too.

But starting in 1989, he hit .210, albeit with an OBP of .305.

Then in 1990 he hit .209.  Still had an OBP of .313, and all those years averaged about a 110 OPS+

1991 though he hit .179, he still had an OBP of .314.

1992 was his last serviceable year, he hit .247 with a .337 OBP.

My point is, for his career...1155 games, 4500 plate appearances......he hit .220, but had a .324 OBP, and a career OPS+ of 109.

If Zunino can have a career that is similar as far as average and OBP, he can be a 130 start a year guy.  As much as Deer struck out though, he walked a lot.....1 walk for every 2.45 K's

Zunino's career rate is 1 walk for every 5.43 K's, that is over twice as bad as Deer.  Zunino has a so-far 2017 average of .229 but his OBP is still under .300 (.292).  If Deer hit .230 his OBP would be 40 points higher then Zunino's.  That is massive, I don't care about a comment like "you can't have 9 great hitters", or "lots of hitters have weaknesses", that is just giving away FAR too many at bats over a season where you may want the guy to catch 120-130 games.

The way the team is constructed, they can afford to stick him in there and let him play every day, he certainly from what I have seen is no slouch defensively.  That being said he sure isn't going to learn how to hit by facing AAA guys and being a quad-A player.



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"NACSTER'S HISTORICAL REPLAY"

33 REPLAYS IN THE BOOKS!

1876-1883

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1906

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VP of Operations

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Date: June 8th
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nacster wrote:
seajaw wrote:
nacster wrote:

Can't believe he's already had as many games as he has....this is his 5th year already


An idea of just how much raw talent he has.

He needed proper grooming and never got it.


 If he can hit .230ish, he will be a longtime kinda guy.  A team just cannot afford to carry a guy that hits .200 unless he is Ozzie Smith or has an OBP 100 points higher then his average.

I am going to use Rob Deer as an example.  For years Deer was a passable fielder, and from 1986 to 1988 he hit .232, .238, and .252.  He stole some bases too.

But starting in 1989, he hit .210, albeit with an OBP of .305.

Then in 1990 he hit .209.  Still had an OBP of .313, and all those years averaged about a 110 OPS+

1991 though he hit .179, he still had an OBP of .314.

1992 was his last serviceable year, he hit .247 with a .337 OBP.

My point is, for his career...1155 games, 4500 plate appearances......he hit .220, but had a .324 OBP, and a career OPS+ of 109.

If Zunino can have a career that is similar as far as average and OBP, he can be a 130 start a year guy.  As much as Deer struck out though, he walked a lot.....1 walk for every 2.45 K's

Zunino's career rate is 1 walk for every 5.43 K's, that is over twice as bad as Deer.  Zunino has a so-far 2017 average of .229 but his OBP is still under .300 (.292).  If Deer hit .230 his OBP would be 40 points higher then Zunino's.  That is massive, I don't care about a comment like "you can't have 9 great hitters", or "lots of hitters have weaknesses", that is just giving away FAR too many at bats over a season where you may want the guy to catch 120-130 games.

The way the team is constructed, they can afford to stick him in there and let him play every day, he certainly from what I have seen is no slouch defensively.  That being said he sure isn't going to learn how to hit by facing AAA guys and being a quad-A player.


You've posted the Deer comparison previously, and I largely agree.

Catching, however, has its own particular set of demands.  So, I might be willing to cut Zunino a little slack there.  His defensive skills at a key position earn him a little more wiggle room.



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More to consider...

Zunino is 26 years old. He's now entering his peak productive years. He's making just $570K and isn't arbitration eligible until next year.

The staff ERA is a full half-run better than the overall team ERA, and .22 better than the league average team ERA, when Zunino is behind the plate.

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The Astros just put Dallas Keuchel on the 10-day DL.

They also moved Collin McHugh from the 10-day to 60-day DL. Fellow starters Charlie Morton and Joe Musgrove are also sidelined, leaving the 'Stros with Lance McCullers and...

The Astros are finally starting to show a few cracks.

Meanwhile, the M's are 12 games backbutd getting healthy.

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seajaw wrote:

More to consider...

Zunino is 26 years old. He's now entering his peak productive years. He's making just $570K and isn't arbitration eligible until next year.

The staff ERA is a full half-run better than the overall team ERA, and .22 better than the league average team ERA, when Zunino is behind the plate.


 True you can cut a catcher a bit more slack.  But how much?  And yes I know about his salary, saw it on the site, for a guy who hits for such a low average they won't be signing him to a lucrative deal any time soon.



__________________

"NACSTER'S HISTORICAL REPLAY"

33 REPLAYS IN THE BOOKS!

1876-1883

1896-1900

1906

1916-1917

1921, 1929

1936-1937

1943, 1946

1956-1963

1976

1986

1991

37,117 regular season games through 34 replays!

 

 



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Date: June 9th
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The Mariners' five-game winning streak was snapped, 2-1, as the Twins salvaged the finale of their three-game series at Safeco Field.

The deciding run came on a rare two-error play by Robbie Cano, who had just one error entering the game.

Joe Mauer hit a grounder with two outs in the fifth inning that came up on Cano a bit and caromed away. Ehrie Adrianza was running from second on the play and Cano whipped a throw to third baseman Kyle Seager, to try to get Adrianza as he rounded the bag. But the throw was low and scooted past Seager, allowing Adrianza to score, making it 2-0 at the time.

The Mariners got one back on a sac fly by Ben Gamel in the seventh.

Mike Zunino came up with runners on first and second and one out in the eighth. He hit a rocket that almost took reliever Taylor Rogers' glove off. But Rogers was able to hold onto the ball, turned and fired to second base for the lineout DP.

Once again, Christian Bergman pitched well. The only earned run he surrendered in five innings was on a solo home run by Jason Castro in the fourth inning.

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A nice piece written about the press conference to announce the Segura extension:

http://sports.mynorthwest.com/293305/drayer-mariners-unity-was-evident-on-jean-seguras-big-day/?show=comments#comments



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Just sitting in his basement, with a Strat game underway."

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