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Post Info TOPIC: Much like 300 game winners, have we seen the last 600-homer man?
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General Manager

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Date: June 4th
Much like 300 game winners, have we seen the last 600-homer man?
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This is a very interesting article I read on CBS.  It gives a few comments about some players who have a snowball's chance to make it to 600 homers.

Personally, I don't think Miggy is going to get there.  Yes he "only" needs 149 homers, but look at A-Rod, he was probably better then 50-50 to get to Bonds record, and he was about as close to a lock as you could get to make 700, and "for whatever reasons" he didn't get there.  Cabrera is 34, has only 5 homers so far this year.  He would need to get to 30 IMO this year, that gets him to 476.  Then he would need 124 starting at his age 35 year.  Five years of 25 gets him there, but it also gets him to age 40.  I don't see Cabrera aging too well once he gets to his late 30's.  Father Time is undeafeated (well, Tom Brady is playing him to a draw right now).

Trout losing 2 months isn't as big of a deal as you may think, unless the thumb causes him issues the rest of the year.  At age 30, Hank Aaron had a year where he only hit 24 homers in 145 games (1964).  Ruth had a year where he hit only 25 at age 30.  After age 35 Mays only had one year where he hit over 23.  In 2005 Jim Thome only hit SEVEN homers.  Trout has 16 right now, if he comes back on August 1st that gives him 2 months to hit 9 homers to get to 25.

 

Albert Pujols of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim hit a grand slam Saturday night off Ervin Santana of the Twins to reach the 600-home run threshold for his career. He's the ninth player in the history of Major League Baseball to join the 600-homer club.

The next player's entrance into the club seems almost as certain as Pujols' was -- that's because Detroit Tigers first baseman Miguel Cabrera (149 away) is one of the few who can rival the machine-like consistency that propelled Pujols to such heights. But who will join after that?

Let's take a look at seven of the potential candidates, accepting that many of the players closest to 600 (Adrian Beltre included) are unlikely to reach the mark before retirement beckons.

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Ryan Braun LF / Milwaukee
HOME RUNS: 292

Ryan Braun's inclusion is an exercise in why others, like Adrian Beltre and Edwin Encarnacion, were excluded.

 
 

A healthy Braun exhibits the rhythmic dependency required to reach 600 home runs. He has had nine seasons with more than 300 plate appearances, and he has homered at least 25 times in all but one of them. The catch, besides Braun being in his age-33 season, is that he's had some injury issues in recent years. Heck, he's currently on the disabled list. If Braun can average 25 home runs per season over the rest of his contract -- and he's guaranteed employment through the 2020 season -- he'll be knocking on the door of 400 as he enters his age-37 season.

Is it likely that Braun could hit 200 more after that point? Let's put it this way: the player with the most home runs after turning 37 is far and away Barry Bonds. Bonds hit 195.

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Justin Upton LF / Detroit
HOME RUNS: 230

There are three ways to get onto lists like these: hitting lots of home runs; being super young; and hitting lots of home runs while being super young.

Justin Upton's inclusion is due to his youth. He has heretofore enjoyed just two 30-homer seasons, yet he has the most home runs of any player younger than 30. Alas, age can't be your only hustle. Upton will find that out the hard way in August, when he celebrates his 30th birthday. Once Upton does that, he'll have the second-most home runs by a player aged 30 or younger … behind Jay Bruce

 
 

Maybe Upton's next decade sees him crank up his power more often. From here, however, it's hard to see him reaching 600.

1630093.png
Giancarlo Stanton RF / Miami
HOME RUNS: 222

Speaking of youngsters that can mash ….

Giancarlo Stanton won't turn 30 until after the 2019 season. Unfortunately, his unreliability makes him tough to project. Remember, Stanton has played in more than 130 games just twice in his career, and he's yet to pop 40 homers in a season. All he has to do is average 30 home runs from 2017-19 to enter his 30s around the halfway point.

Still, how often does a player get healthier the older he gets? If Stanton can, he has a legitimate shot at joining the 600-homer club some day.

 
 
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Mike Trout CF / L.A. Angels
HOME RUNS: 184

You can't write this kind of piece without including Trout. Even though he's going to miss close to two months recovering from a torn thumb ligament, there's a chance he ends the year with 200 home runs. One more typical Trout season as a 26-year-old, and he'll be looking at somewhere around 230-240 home runs entering his statistical prime.

Of course Trout is a candidate to reach 600. He's probably the best candidate, honestly, because he's the best candidate for roughly every historical feat.

1765813.png
Bryce Harper RF / Washington
HOME RUNS: 136
1765812.png
Manny Machado 3B / Baltimore
HOME RUNS: 115

We're lumping these two together because they're in the same boat. Both are young and extremely talented, and both have real shots at 600 home runs.

Bryce Harper is more than three months younger and has a 21-homer lead, so he has the better case. He's already had a 40-homer season, and could threaten that mark again this year, depending on whether he can avoid injury (and/or further suspension). He won't turn 25 until October, at which point he should be over 150. That's not an Alex Rodriguez (241), Pujols (201), or even Andruw Jones (185) amount, but it's a good start.

 
 

Another 35-to-37-homer effort from Manny Machado would give him roughly the same math. Neither is a given, but both have the chance to make strong pushes over the next 12 to 15 years.

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Kris Bryant 3B / Chi. Cubs
HOME RUNS: 76

From a pair of not-yet 25-year-olds to someone who turned 25 in January.

For Kris Bryant to threaten 600, he'd have to continuously swat 40 or more homers over the next decade-plus. The good news is Bryant has the kind of power to do just that. The bad news is Bryant seems unlikely to reach 600. Oh well. 



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VP of Operations

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Date: June 5th
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It would be nice to get back to 500-600 homers being relatively rare.

It's never fun when things get too far out of whack.

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Upper Deck - Infield Ticket

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everything has to go right for 20+ years. which means healthy + 30hr + 20yrs = 600....I think 600 is coming to an end for awhile. Outside shots Harper, Bryant, Machado, Judge, Betts.

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korgano wrote:

everything has to go right for 20+ years. which means healthy + 30hr + 20yrs = 600....I think 600 is coming to an end for awhile. Outside shots Harper, Bryant, Machado, Judge, Betts.


 You NEED to have a couple monster homer years to make up for the inevitable injury, not to mention Father Time.  You gotta have at least four or five 40-45 homer years IMO.

 



__________________

"NACSTER'S HISTORICAL REPLAY"

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1876-1883

1896-1900

1906

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1943, 1946

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1976

1986

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Lower Deck - Infield Ticket

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nacster wrote:
korgano wrote:

everything has to go right for 20+ years. which means healthy + 30hr + 20yrs = 600....I think 600 is coming to an end for awhile. Outside shots Harper, Bryant, Machado, Judge, Betts.


 You NEED to have a couple monster homer years to make up for the inevitable injury, not to mention Father Time.  You gotta have at least four or five 40-45 homer years IMO.

 


 I'm sure it will be done again but I think without peds it wont be done nearly as often.  Looking at todays players, I would guess that Trout has a shot but I'm not sure the next 600 HR player is on a MLB roster right now.



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fgabs68 wrote:
nacster wrote:
korgano wrote:

everything has to go right for 20+ years. which means healthy + 30hr + 20yrs = 600....I think 600 is coming to an end for awhile. Outside shots Harper, Bryant, Machado, Judge, Betts.


 You NEED to have a couple monster homer years to make up for the inevitable injury, not to mention Father Time.  You gotta have at least four or five 40-45 homer years IMO.

 


 I'm sure it will be done again but I think without peds it wont be done nearly as often.  Looking at todays players, I would guess that Trout has a shot but I'm not sure the next 600 HR player is on a MLB roster right now.


 Think of it this way..........Trout STILL needs 416 homers.  If he plays until he is 40 (through the 2031 season, 14 full years), he would need 30 a year (well, 29.7 to be exact).  He is losing 6 weeks to injury this year, so that means he is going to have to hit, at a guess, 10 more homers in a year to make up for it.  Then who knows how he is going to age?  He is quite athletic, so guys like him age better then a guy like Pujols for example.  

You know it actually is quite sad watching Pujols play now.  He cannot even fake trying to run, when I remember him being one of the smartest base runners in baseball.  His swing now is that of someone who is cheating on looking for a pitch and hoping he gets a middle-in fastball.  He used to rifle hits all over the park, now he has become a dead-pull guy.  He was once a guy who would walk 100 times and come close to twice as many walks as strikeouts, with OBP's approaching .450.  Now he can't even come close to reaching a .350 OBP and whiffs more then he ever did (of course they all do LOL).

His numbers the last few years have still been decent, but look at what David Ortiz did at an age a couple years older then Pujols is now, and on knees and ankles just as bad.



-- Edited by nacster on Saturday 17th of June 2017 01:24:24 AM

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"NACSTER'S HISTORICAL REPLAY"

34 REPLAYS IN THE BOOKS!

1876-1883

1896-1900

1906

1916-1917

1921, 1929

1936-1937

1943, 1946

1956-1963

1976

1986

1991, 1996

37,117 regular season games through 34 replays!

 

 



Upper Deck - Infield Ticket

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Date: 7 days ago
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nacster wrote:
korgano wrote:

everything has to go right for 20+ years. which means healthy + 30hr + 20yrs = 600....I think 600 is coming to an end for awhile. Outside shots Harper, Bryant, Machado, Judge, Betts.


 You NEED to have a couple monster homer years to make up for the inevitable injury, not to mention Father Time.  You gotta have at least four or five 40-45 homer years IMO.

 


Absolutely, I look at Pujols, 600 in 17yrs he'd be close to top three without injury and father time. 



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